Rick Perry vs the World

Came and visited this site tonight...

2010-12-03T21:34:00.000-08:00

...and it brought back memories of living in Austin. Strange.

That made me go back and check the first post, and voila! It's been six years since that first post.

2010-03-28T18:36:00.000-07:00

the other day I read some of my posts from years ago on Delay vs World and I was pleased it held up reasonably well.

2010-03-18T01:03:00.000-07:00

If I were to post here instead of the normal Rick Perry vs World, I wonder whether anyone would read it.

archival

2009-01-06T21:47:00.000-08:00

Esta también es otra página para tener archivo. Me di cuenta que no hay por años.

Otra pagina de archivo

2008-01-06T21:46:00.000-08:00

Si senor, es otra pagina de archivo.

Another old Rick Perry vs World archive

2007-01-06T21:24:00.000-08:00

Now posting at Rick Perry vs World

Archive page

2006-06-01T21:22:00.000-07:00

Now posting at the fancy new Rick Perry vs World digs

New address

2005-05-16T20:51:00.000-07:00

This blog is moving to its new home at www.perryvsworld.com.

Many thanks to Kevin for doing all the Nucleus work and hosting, and Chris for the graphics. The new place is certainly much classier.

UPDATE: I have a new blog: Tom DeLay vs World. Go check it out.

Texas Monthly on Strayhorn

2005-05-16T17:30:00.000-07:00

Texas Monthly should have a "major piece" coming out on Comptroller Strayhorn in next month's edition.

We hope to have a preview link for you in the next week or so, courtesy of Texas Monthly.

Weyrich on KBH vs. Perry

2005-05-16T16:35:00.000-07:00

Paul Weyrich, one of the patriarchs of the conservative movement, writes up his view of Perry and Hutchison:

Senator Hutchison said she would make up her mind about running against Governor Perry or running for another term in the Senate. She would have no trouble getting re-elected. The Democrats most likely would endorse a sacrificial candidate to run against her. Senator Hutchison is more liberal than her colleague, Fellow Republican Senator John Cornyn, and almost all other Republicans in the Texas Congressional Delegation. In fact, one motivation for Senator Hutchison, we are told, is her frustration over continually having to take more conservative stands than she would like but she tries to be loyal to President Bush and the more conservative GOP leadership in the Senate. When she served one term as Chairman of the Senate Steering Committee she would cringe when advised of positions she should take with the Senate’s conservative leadership. Most Senators serve multiple terms as chairman of this caucus of conservative Senators. She did not.

The incumbent Governor may be tough to beat. While not having the engaging personality of a George W. Bush or even an Ann Richards Governor Perry nevertheless is a solid conservative who vowed he would run on his record. He adamantly opposes tax increases. He was victorious over the budget crisis, (which nearly every Governor has experienced). Texas had a $10 billion deficit. Perry is the ONLY Governor to have balanced the budget without raising taxes. In fact, in this session of the Texas State Legislature Governor Perry is tangling with some fellow Republicans, a few of whom want to raise taxes and revenues. The Governor's answer has been consistently "no."

Perry has the support of social conservatives who have become a very important part of the Texas GOP. Indeed the expanded party base has developed at the expense of pro-life and pro-family Democrats who left their party after it was dominated by Planned Parenthood, the ACLU and other leftwing groups. In the last session of the Texas Legislature, Governor Perry led the passage of the Defense of Marriage Act. He led the passage of a unique “women’s right-to-know” law, which requires that prior to seeking abortions women receive information about the possible consequences of such a procedure. It is an informed-consent law which other states are reviewing as a possible model for regulating abortion. Perry also led and passed the "Pre-Natal Protection Act," which is really the Lacy and Connor Peterson Law for Texas. This session the Governor supports enactment of a parental-consent abortion law and wants a Constitutional amendment on marriage approved at the federal level.

Already the Governor and Senator Hutchison have clashed over embryonic stem cell research. Senator Hutchison favors expanding the available lines for stem cell research. Governor Perry takes President Bush's position that one does not destroy potential human life in the name of scientific research. It is not clear what Senator Hutchison's position is on pro-family issues that Governor Perry has advocated but she came to the Senate as a supporter of abortion rights. She has voted for most pro-life issues in the intervening years, however, because most abortion votes have involved funding and other marginal issues rather than abortion itself.

Shorts

2005-05-16T16:20:00.000-07:00

1. Kay Bailey Hutchison completed the Capital Challenge to again claim the title of fastest female senator.

2. KBH received "enthusiastically" by the mostly black congregation at T.D. Jakes' church in Dallas. Unfortunately for Kay, probably not many are Republican primary voters.

3. The Statesman blog has rumors that Wentworth and others in the House were planning to prohibit federal campaign funds from being used in state races. That would mean KBH wouldn't be able to use her $7 million in federal accounts to run for governor.

4. Rocker and activist Ted Nugent "has developed a friendship with Republican Gov. Rick Perry. He said the two send e-mails and talk regularly. They met a few years ago through a mutual hunting pal, and Nugent plans to help Perry's re-election campaign next year."

5. Perry and Hutchison temporarily make nice in fighting for Texas to keep its military installations.

Ambassador Hutchison rumors

2005-05-16T15:58:00.000-07:00

Douglas, Recio and Moritz in the >FWST:

It may not have much basis in fact, but the latest rumor about U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison has Austin buzzing again.

It has Hutchison, a Dallas Republican reportedly considering a bid for Texas governor, getting tapped by President Bush as U.S. ambassador to the Court of St. James's, the plum United Kingdom position now vacant.

That would clear a major hurdle to Gov. Rick Perry's re-election and open up the coveted Senate nomination for U.S. Rep. Henry Bonilla, R-San Antonio, or Republican Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst.

Hutchison spokesman Chris Paulitz dismissed the rumors.

"She's never been offered an ambassadorship," he said.

The U.S. ambassador's London residence is one of the most luxurious in the U.S. Foreign Service. Winfield House, a gift to the United States by heiress Barbara Hutton, is an antique-filled mansion on 12 1/2 acres in Regent's Park.

Hutchison might want to consider it.

New Texas Poll has Perry and Hutch sliding

2005-05-12T05:36:00.000-07:00

The new Texas Poll shows Rick Perry's job approval rating at 45%, with 35% disapproving. That's down from 51% in a poll released in mid-February. The poll was done from 4/14 to 5/4.

KBH's approval shows a similar slide, from 72% approving in the previous poll to 67% now. Strayhorn moved slightly downward from 53% to 51%. By contrast, Bush's approval is 58% in the poll.

Among Republicans, job approval is 68% for Hutchison and 63% for Perry.

These results do make you wonder how Survey USA found a 38/48 job approval/disapproval in a 5/6 to 5/8 poll. The SUSA poll seems low.

Are we having fun yet?

2005-05-11T17:58:00.000-07:00

Suzanne Gamboa, AP:

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison was the target of criticism from Texas Gov. Rick Perry on Tuesday after she proposed a highway measure that Perry supported.

Hutchison, R-Texas, is considering challenging Perry in the 2006 GOP gubernatorial primary. Perry has announced he will seek another term.

Hutchison proposed an amendment to a U.S. Senate bill authorizing spending levels for transportation and federal highways. Her amendment would prohibit states from assessing tolls on existing highways.

Perry said in a statement he agrees Hutchison's proposal. But then came the criticism.

"We're glad Sen. Hutchison is following Gov. Perry's lead in opposing the conversion of existing highway lanes to be used as toll roads," press secretary Kathy Walt said in a statement.

"But instead of solving a problem that doesn't exist in Texas, we hope she will solve one that does," Walt said. Walt said the state needs "real leadership to ensure Texas gets treated fairly when it comes to highway funding."

Heh. Sounds like the Perry campaign is not going to commit to the "she's so effective in the Senate, she ought to stay there" line.

Shorts

2005-05-11T17:35:00.000-07:00

1. Dallas oilman Albert Huddleston says he'll donate heavily to KBH if she challenges Perry:

A deep-pocketed Dallas contributor said Friday he will funnel big bucks to U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's campaign if she challenges Gov. Rick Perry's bid for another term next year.

"She'd make a great governor," Albert Huddleston said. "If (she) chooses to run, then I will be helping her in that effort more than I've rarely helped anybody."

Perry's campaign spokesman, Luis Saenz, discounted Huddleston because he's spoken kindly of creating a state personal income tax and supported Democrats.

I checked Huddleston's political contributions at both federal and state level. He gives mostly (75%ish, I'd say) to Republicans, but definitely has lots of Democrats that he contributes to as well.

Not that it should matter that much. Both Perry and Hutchison should have plenty of money.

2. Byron highlights some relatively low poll numbers from Rick Perry. I can't find the actual poll results beyond the basic Perry job approval numbers, which are 38% Approve, 48% Disapprove, and 14% Unsure. Byron adds some numbers I couldn't find anywhere on Survey USA's website, that Republicans are 57/33 approval/disapproval with 10% unsure.

Lots of political journalists and observers discount Survey USA's polls, since they use automated questioners instead of human questioners on the other end of the line. I generally think that the skepticism of Survey USA is unwarranted.

I pass on the results of this poll without comment, as there are several reasons why this mightn't be very predictive.

Mistakes by inexperienced staffers

2005-05-11T17:30:00.000-07:00

Remember the Republican pro-choice group that removed Hutchison from its endorsement list?

The group says it was a mistake by an "inexperienced staffer":

With Texas conservatives dogging her every move, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison found herself embroiled this week in an issue she prefers to avoid – abortion – after a miscue by a Republican abortion-rights group that has long backed her.

The Wish List, a group that raises money for GOP candidates who support abortion rights, sought to knock down reports it was distancing itself from Ms. Hutchison.

The Texas senator remains on the group's Web site as an honorary board member and is touted as one of four female pro-choice GOP senators.

Earlier this week, Wish List removed a page saying it "strongly supports" Ms. Hutchison for a third term in the Senate. The group's president, Pat Carpenter, on Friday blamed "an inexperienced staffer" for posting an endorsement prematurely, since Ms. Hutchison is not yet a declared candidate for re-election.

Social-conservative allies of the governor's campaign -- prodded by a Perry aide -- pounced on the group's decision, calling it an effort to hide Ms. Hutchison's support of abortion rights. They circulated a news release that erroneously said Wish List had dropped her from its board.

On Friday, social conservatives stepped up their attack on Ms. Hutchison with a new round of e-mails to activists in Texas.

...

Kelly Shackelford of the Free Market Foundation, which opposes abortion and gay marriage, said he's confident Mr. Perry would win the GOP primary.

At the same time, he said, some social conservatives see a silver lining in a Hutchison challenge because it would trigger elections that could put more conservative candidates in statewide office.

"I've talked with a number of people who privately think it might be a good thing," he said.

McKenzie column

2005-05-11T16:45:00.000-07:00

It's no secret that the legislature's failure to produce a school finance bill hurts Rick Perry.

William McKenzie writes in a DMN column:

That sound you hear from Austin is a door swinging open, plenty wide enough for Kay Bailey Hutchison to barge right through.

Gov. Rick Perry has had every chance this session to lead legislators to a plan that answers the state's school funding shortfall, effectively closing Ms. Hutchison out of a gubernatorial primary challenge. Instead, he talks mostly about new academic and financial standards for schools. He appears content with the Legislature's funding proposals.

...

Unlike Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn, who's more likely to enter the GOP governor's race because she darn well wants to, Ms. Hutchison doesn't want to take this big leap without the right opening. She sells well across Texas, drawing about two-thirds of the votes in her Senate races. She particularly resonates with suburban voters, including women in places like Plano who place a high priority on their children's schools.

Before the 2005 Legislature, Mr. Perry gave her some daylight. After an impressive stint as lieutenant governor in 1999, his first session as governor in 2001 ended with strained feelings because he vetoed a ton of bills. His swift pen angered even supporters.

Then came 2003 and the Legislature's mean budget battle. With the governor's backing, the House took deep cuts out of programs that help kids and the elderly. The House's approach pretty much prevailed because the governor didn't want legislators to raise taxes.

Mr. Perry's no-new-taxes theme continues in the school finance debate, fed by the anti-tax movement that conservative advocate Grover Norquist and others in Washington have turned into a cottage industry. "Everyone in Austin's been Norquistized," says one business leader.

But here's the rub: Schools don't get fixed without enough money. If Mr. Perry keeps low-balling the state's education investment over the next month – and if GOP Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst can't get the governor and House to budge – Ms. Hutchison has ample room to run. She can make the case that the governor didn't lead the state into the future.

Color me skeptical about McKenzie's column. McKenzie advocates that if Perry wants to be re-elected, then the guv ought raise taxes to pay for increased expenditures.

I'm very skeptical of the notion that GOP primary voters are clamoring for more state taxes, regardless of where the money is spent.

Similar situation in Nebraska?

2005-05-10T18:31:00.000-07:00

It looks like Nebraska has a similar situation as Texas: a Capitol Hill officeholder wants to return home to run for guv against an incumbent.

From the Hotline:

Gov. Dave Heineman (R) "is coming under increased pressure" from nat'l GOPers to drop from the GOV race and instead challenge Sen. Ben Nelson (D). "The recruitment effort is being spearheaded" by the NRSC "and has picked up considerably in intensity" since Rep. Tom Osborne (R-03) announced his GOV candidacy. NRSC chair Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) "has not yet spoken with Heineman about the possibility directly" but will attend a NE GOP Founders Day event in Omaha 5/20. NRSC spokesperson Brian Nick: "We hope he gives it a good hard look. Any time a sitting governor is interested in running for Senate that is a great opportunity."
Heineman "has so far resisted the NRSC's entreaties," recently saying that on a scale of zero to 100 his interest in the race is "minus-1000 and dropping." But "given the political reality he faces, many observers expect him to at least entertain the contest if he wants to remain in politics" beyond '06. Facing Osborne "in a statewide primary is almost assuredly a losing proposition for Heineman, according to public and private polling."
A SEN race "would not present Heineman with the same mountain to climb" -- at least for the GOP nomination. Elected Treas. in '94 and '98, he "rejected urgings to consider entering" the '00 Senate race, insisting he was focused on one day serving as GOV. NE GOP chair Mark Quandahl "said he has had several recent discussions with Heineman about the possibility of him running" for SEN. Quandahl: "He made it pretty clear to me that he would not be inclined to run for the United State Senate. He feels his talents are best suited in the executive branch" (Cillizza, Roll Call, 5/10).

Who's on the right?

2005-05-06T12:50:00.000-07:00

John Moritz, FWST:

A national organization that promotes Republicans who support abortion rights removed U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's name Wednesday from its list of advisory board members and from the list of candidates it will endorse in next year's elections.

Hutchison's office said the senator did not request that her name be removed. But Gov. Rick Perry's campaign, which views Texas' senior senator as a potential rival in next year's GOP gubernatorial primary, suggested that Hutchison was trying to camouflage her position on one of the hot-button issues among Republican activists.

"It looks like she's trying to hide from her record," said Luis Saenz, a spokesman for the Perry campaign. "Governor Perry is very proud of his record when it comes to issues dealing with the unborn."

The national organization, called The Wish List, would not say why Hutchison's name was removed.

Hutchison has consistently supported abortion rights, sometimes putting her at odds with social conservatives, who have a strong influence in Republican primaries.

Meanwhile, Wayne Slater writes up Perry's speech at a recent prayer breakfast

Gov. Rick Perry, who is counting on the support of social conservatives in his re-election bid, told a religious audience Tuesday that "America was founded on our Christian faith" and that prayer can help guide government policy.

"From the earliest days of the republic, our leaders have called upon Americans to join together in prayer," Mr. Perry told the Texas Prayer Breakfast.

The Republican governor said God "chooses to involve himself in the affairs of men – and not just the major issues that we deal with, but in every issue."

Facing a possible challenge in next year's Republican primary, Mr. Perry has cast himself as a social conservative and courted opponents of abortion and gay marriage.

"That's a base of support he absolutely has to have," said Richard Murray, a University of Houston political science professor.

Mr. Perry's address Tuesday to several hundred people attending the prayer breakfast struck strong religious themes and produced a standing ovation. The breakfast was part of National Day of Prayer.

AP on anti-TTC rally

2005-05-03T14:08:00.000-07:00

The AP wire:

About 250 farmers and ranchers rallied at the Capitol today to protest Governor Rick Perry's Trans Texas Corridor.

Critics say the highway project will gobble up the property of rural land owners.

Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn joined the demonstrators and called Perry's associates "land-grabbing highway henchmen."

She also called the governor's plan the "Trans Texas Catastrophe."

...

Spokesman Robert Black also says Strayhorn in the past has supported toll roads.

RG Ratcliffe writes in the Chron:

Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn got farmers, ranchers and small-business owners whipped into a frenzy at a Capitol rally Tuesday as they called for Gov. Rick Perry's impeachment over the land-condemnation provisions of his Trans-Texas Corridor plan.

"Perry and his hand-picked highway henchmen say we have a choice: no roads, slow roads or toll roads," Strayhorn said. "I say to Governor Perry and his highway henchmen: Hogwash. Vote our way today for freeways."

Changes ahead

2005-05-03T13:27:00.000-07:00

Several members of the Houston Coven have decided that my bare-bones two-minute-setup blogger template is lacking.

So there may be a significant upgrade in the days ahead.

I've written several times that I started this site on a lark, and that I was ambivalent about continuing it. That's why I've put zero effort into promoting it.

With the new digs, that may change. Maybe I'll even start putting some effort into this. Who knows?

The Kay and Nate show

2005-05-03T05:30:00.000-07:00

Gromer Jeffers in the DMN:

Kay Bailey Hutchison wants Dallas County Republican Party Chairman Nate Crain to leave her alone.

"I'm trying very hard to focus on my job," she said after a speech last week at the Belo Mansion. "I just would hope that our party leaders would not be taking shots at an officeholder in the party who is trying very hard to do her job."

...

"There is a disturbing pattern about where this is headed," Mr. Crain said. "I don't want to see our party split."

Rick Neudorff, the Collin County Republican Party chairman, supports Mr. Crain.

"I would rather her not run and have campaign money sucked up in one race," he said.

Potential Republican campaign donors throughout the state have sent similar signals. But despite some institutional opposition, analysts consider Ms. Hutchison unbeatable in her own back yard.

Her campaign contends that Mr. Perry's organization is responsible for Mr. Crain's sniping.

"It says a lot about his leadership," said Terry Sullivan, campaign manager for Ms. Hutchison. "He needs to focus on the important things going on in our state, instead of worrying about re-election."

Luis Saenz, the governor's campaign director, said Mr. Crain is "his own guy" and that Mr. Perry was not involved in the party leader's spat with Ms. Hutchison.

The Weekly Weekend Roundup

2005-05-02T16:06:00.000-07:00

1. Dean Barkley has joined Kinky Friedman's campaign as "campaign director and chief strategist." Barkley managed Jesse Ventura's campaign for governor of Minnesota and then was appointed US Senator by Gov. Ventura when Paul Wellstone died.

2. Senator Hutchison called the folks behind the Minuteman Project "very brave" and "caring." The Minuteman Project is volunteers who patrol the Arizona-Mexico border in the hopes of stopping immigrants from entering the US without documentation.

3. Rick Casey opines in the HouChron that the death of a campaign finance bill "could add considerable sizzle to a potential gubernatorial primary fight between" Perry and KBH. The dead bill would have prohibited outside groups from running ads in the days before an election.

Perry meets with Chronicle ed board

2005-05-02T13:06:00.000-07:00

Clay Robison writes up Perry's sitdown with the Chron editorial board. The article mostly focuses on the CPS overhaul legislation and the controversial amendment banning homosexuals from being foster parents.

Cheers to In the Pink for the reminder to post this.

Burka, the senior Senator, and the shadow primary

2005-04-28T15:11:00.000-07:00

Since I commented on Patricia Kilday Hart's article yesterday, today I'll comment on Paul Burka's May 2005 Texas Monthly article. Burka frames his story as a faux memo from KBH's political political consultants to the Senator herself.

One of the things I love about Texas Monthly is that it is consistently provocative, thought-inducing writing. With that said, I think Burka's piece reads like something written by a member of the mainstream media rather than something written by a GOP political consultant that actually has an intimate sense of Republican primaries.

... most of the statewide officials -- except Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn, who may run for governor herself -- have already endorsed Rick Perry. It's a toss-up who's more craven: Perry for asking them this early or them for doing it. Now you're holding up their game of musical chairs, especially in the case of David Dewhurst, the lieutenant governor. He wants to succeed Perry in 2010, but if you beat Perry, he's stuck in his current job for eight more years. So he might opt to run for your Senate seat, leaving his job open and touching off another mad scramble. Congressman Henry Bonilla, of San Antonio, has already said he'll run for the Senate if you don't. Strayhorn and Attorney General Greg Abbott would look at the lite gov's office Dewhurst would be vacating, and railroad commissioner Michael Williams and Texas Supreme Court justice Harriet O'Neill are said to be interested in the AG’s job. Yes, all eyes are on you right now.

It may be craven, but it seems like smart politics to me for Perry to have wrapped up his endorsements. Politicians are generally risk-averse, and so Perry realized that if he asked now, all the statewide officeholders would be likely to endorse him. I can't think of a good reason why Perry shouldn't have wrapped up his endorsements now.

Good shortlist of the musical chairs that will happen if Hutchison runs for governor.

Your job is to exploit the latent "Perry fatigue" among voters, to contrast your vision and leadership with his.

It shouldn't be hard.

Yikes. Any Hutchison consultant who so understates the difficulty that Hutchison will face in beating Perry...well, I think that consultant is probably enticing Hutchison into the race in hopes of the higher fees that come from an expensive, high profile race.

Comments

2005-04-28T12:08:00.000-07:00

I got together with Chris and Kevin for some adult beverages last night. Good times were had by all...once we finally got a table.

They both think I need a site redesign and comments. So we'll see, maybe this blog will get a facelift.

Chris Bell's new website

2005-04-27T12:46:00.000-07:00

Chris Bell -- he's still just exploring. really -- has launched his website, with the two trendiest things in websites today: a blog and a podcast.

The perfect storm (numerically)

2005-04-27T10:42:00.000-07:00

Were I to quantify my recent post, I'd lay the odds somewhere around 13:1 to 19:1. To put it another way, I'd say there is about a 5%-7.5% chance that a Democrat lives in the guv's mansion in February 2007. Under current circumstances, a Democrat would win once every 16 to 20 times.

I'll admit that most would probably put Democrats' chances of winning significantly higher. I think they're wrong.

Part of the reason I think so is because I'm not convinced that either Perry or Hutchison would be wounded enough by a primary to make them vulnerable. The primary is in March, a good 8 months before the general election in November.

Dueling campaign quotes

2005-04-26T23:02:00.000-07:00

The Houston Chronicle picks up the story of the email from Nate Crain, where Crain complained about the Hutchison camp's denial of several stories: that Crain was disinvited from KBH's events, that Midland GOP Chair Sue Brannon claimed KBH told her she was running for gov to spend more time with her kids, and that state Sen. Deuell claimed Beckwith threatened him with primary opposition.

The Chron has quotes from the campaigns:

Hutchison campaign manager Terry Sullivan said Crain's e-mail is part of an orchestrated effort by Perry's campaign to use a few vocal supporters to shore up his support.

Sullivan said Hutchison is more interested in seeing the Legislature accomplish something about property tax reform and public school finance than in discussing a possible race for governor.

"It's embarrassing that the governor's office is playing politics with this instead of leading on important issues," Sullivan said. "Obviously, he is more concerned about what is good for his campaign than what is good for the people of Texas."

Perry re-election campaign manager Luis Saenz said Crain acted on his own and has not endorsed Perry for governor.

"It just shows the growing grass-roots support that Republicans are showing for Gov. Perry," Saenz said. "Gov. Perry has worked hard for that support."

The AP wire take on the matter is here.

Crain email

2005-04-26T21:39:00.000-07:00

Today the FWST reported that Dallas County Republican Party Chairman Nate Crain says he was uninvited to Hutchison events.

This afternoon Harvey Kronberg reports that Crain is circulating an email asking his fellow GOP county chairmen to tell Senator Hutchison not to run for guv. Here's the excerpt that Kronberg printed:

Dear Fellow Republican County Chairman:

I am writing to encourage you to let Senator Hutchison know your opposition to her running for Governor.

In recent weeks, the tone of the Hutchison campaign has changed dramatically.Republican County Chairman and Republican Elected officials have been treated in a shameful and disappointing manner.

Chairwoman Sue Brannon shared a story with several newspapers about a conversation that she and Senator Hutchison had. The Hutchison campaign denied that the conversation took place.

If someone can get me the full email, I'd appreciate it.

Democrats can win...but it would take the perfect storm

2005-04-26T14:16:00.000-07:00

In May's Texas Monthly, Patricia Kildray Hart theorizes that:

The chance of a Democratic upset in the 2006 governor's race is as likely as, well, Bill Clements winning in '78. Or Mark White winning in '82. Or Ann Richards winning in '90. Or …

Color me unconvinced. I'll put Hart's support for her position in an orderly fashion, and then I'll comment on it.
1. Texas gubernatorial elections have historically been unpredictable.

Yawn. This is hardly a statistically significant sample size. Some Dem primaries were unpredictable in the past, but statistically that doesn't mean much.

2. The GOP has a 10 point advantage, but because the GOP won when Dems dominated, now the Dems can win in GOP dominated Texas.

The situations aren't analagous at all. Republicans were able to win the governorship in Dem Texas a few times when Democrats had a substantial lead in party ID. But by this time Texas was already starting to swing Republican presidentially. Moreover, Texas has always been conservative, and that favors Republicans.

Today, Republicans dominate, but we also dominate in Texas at the presidential level. Likewise, the same is still true: Texas is still conservative, and Republicans are even more clearly the conservative party today.

3. I almost summarized this, but it's just too rich not to: "Buried in the 2004 election returns were a few hopeful events that Democrats believe they can build upon: Congressman Chet Edwards’s defeat of former Texas lawmaker Arlene Wohlgemuth in a district that was drawn to elect a Republican; Hubert Vo’s defeat of House Appropriations chairman Talmadge Heflin in an ethnically dynamic Houston legislative district; and Mark Strama's defeat of Republican incumbent Jack Stick in a Republican-leaning Austin legislative district. Their common trait? Criticizing Republican priorities: redrawing congressional boundaries at the behest of DeLay instead of focusing on school finance and voting for budget cuts over health insurance for poor children. There's also recent evidence that Democrats can raise money in Texas: Hillary Clinton netted half a million dollars in a two-day campaign swing in March."

That's an optimistic (from a Democrat's perspective) look at the 2004 elections. Sure, they managed to win a few elections. But lots of Democrats also thought that several redistricted Democrats would survive. Only Edwards did. And let's remember that many of these white Democrats who lost already had strongly GOP districts before redistricting.

Hillary Clinton can raise money in Texas? I guess that means national Democrats can still use Texas as an ATM to withdraw money for other states.

Wohlgemuth let herself get caricaturized in the general, Heflin ran a terrible race, and the Statesman hammered Stick on what they felt were ethical lapses. Also, it's doubtful whether Stick's district is still GOP. It's trending the other way.

Sure, these were the Democratic bright spots for 2004. But to extrapolate to a statewide race is essentially just fantasy.

4. "The biggest issue for Democrats is not really who but when. Consultants on both sides of the aisle agree that it's only a matter of time before Democrats become competitive again, with the help of the expected surge in the Hispanic vote and, if the Vo race is an indicator, the Asian vote as well."

The question might be when, but that day is unlikely to be soon. Folks have been writing about the looming Hispanic vote in Texas for 50 years.

Remember how Tony Sanchez did? His model for winning was based on Hispanic voters, and he got swamped. There's no reason to think that in 2006 anybody could do better than that. They won't be able to spend $70 million on GOTV.

Also, Vo is Vietnamese -- the most Republican ethnic group in America. All indications are that he switched some Vietnamese votes and Asian to the D column -- and in that he was a perfect candidate for the district -- but using Vo to extrapolate that "the Asian vote" is trending D...there's no evidence of that.

5. "One thing that could change that forecast is the Kinky factor. The former Texas Monthly columnist has destabilized the field by declaring his independent candidacy for the job with a logical query: How hard could it be?"

If Kinky can actually get 50,000 folks to sign his ballot that don't vote in either primary, then I'll be impressed. If not, he's not even on the ballot.

In short, I'm totally unimpressed by Hart's argument. Sure, there's always a chance for a Democrat to win -- it's never impossible -- but it would take a perfect storm.

FWST covers blogs

2005-04-26T11:42:00.000-07:00

Aman Batheja profiles of a few of the blogs covering the legislature, including this one.

Perry spokesman Rob Black cautioned readers of blogs to take everything they read with a grain of salt.

"There have been a lot of inaccuracies in a lot of statements in blogs we have seen," Black said.

Memo to Perry campaign: why not try to change that, instead of complaining about it? From my experience, it doesn't seem like they're taking a pro-active approach with blogs.

Weekend recap, 2nd try

2005-04-26T11:10:00.000-07:00

I'm back from Amarillo, where I had a wonderful time. It's always good to visit other parts of Texas, and the Panhandle was beautiful this time of year. It was cold though.

1. Perry attends ribbon cutting in El Paso at new EDS location. Then he speaks to 200 at the El Paso County GOP banquet before flying off to Mexico for Ambassador (and former Railroad Commish) Tony Garza's wedding to the Corona beer heiress.

2. The LATimes writes up Kinky's candidacy.

3. William McKenzie in the DMN opines the obvious:

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, in particular, should follow this part of the debate. If a question remains about school finance at the session's end, she has room to run against Mr. Perry next year in the Republican primary. If there's not, her chance for a challenge shrinks.

4. Nate Crain, chair of the Dallas County GOP, says that someone from Hutchison's camp called to disinvite him from her March 31 fundraiser because he's endorsed Perry for re-election. Hutchison's campaign denies it.

Assuming there's at least some kernel of truth to the story, KBH's campaign seems awfully interested in running for guv, even if the Senator hasn't officially made up her mind.

5. The R Club, a group of younger fiscal conservative Houstonians, has endorsed Perry for re-relection.

6. No pictures please:

There was Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Texas, coming out of a Senate elevator the other day on her way to a vote. And who was sharing the elevator with her? Why, Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y.

Hutchison and potential gubernatorial rival Gov. Rick Perry traded barbs recently over a videotape showing her exchanging niceties with Clinton at an event.

So when Hutchison realized that a Star-Telegram reporter had noticed her elevator companion, she quickly took the initiative.

"Don't take a picture," she said with a grin.

7. Strayhorn blasted Perry (surprise, surprise) for the tolls which will finance the Trans-Texas Corridor (via HK). She also continues to come up with unique reasons to send out press releases to try and get into the headlines.

Growl

2005-04-25T22:13:00.000-07:00

Blogger just ate my recap of what happened last weekend.

Growl.

Posting will be slow for the weekend

2005-04-21T18:58:00.000-07:00

Friday morning, I'm off to Amarillo for the weekend. I'm not sure I'll be able to post from there. I may post this evening, but I wouldn't bet on it.

You know it's slow when...

2005-04-21T11:07:00.000-07:00

...this is the biggest news of the day so far.

Senators KBH and Cornyn announced that a Marshall company received the contract to build army battlefield simulators.

I've got a post coming on where the GOP primary vote comes from, but in the meantime I'm off to visit a friend.

Perry updates his SREC support

2005-04-20T22:20:00.000-07:00

Today the Perry campaign announced that 46 members of the 62 member State Republican Executive Committee have signed on to his re-election. Bill Crocker, one of two Texas representatives to the national committee, also endorsed Perry.

Since the beginning of March, Perry has increased his share of SREC members from about 50% to 75%.

Terry Sullivan, KBH's campaign manager, once said that, "If the governor was doing an even halfway good job in the eyes of the Republican Party, every [SREC member] would have signed."

Well, it ain't every SREC member but it's getting closer to it.

Slow days

2005-04-20T11:12:00.000-07:00

Not much news coming out of the shadow primary this week. Sometimes I'm slow on posting, but this week there just isn't much happening.

If I get around to it, I'll finish up a post or two that I've been writing.

Mas shorts

2005-04-18T07:23:00.000-07:00

1. Clay Robison opines in the Chronicle against the tv ads featuring Perry that are being run outside of the state to promote Texas for business. Robison doesn't like the fact that private money is being used; he'd rather taxpayers pay.

For someone with such keen vision for conflicts of interest, Robison is blind to the conflict of interest in being head of the the news in Austin and yet opining in a weekly column.

2. Chris Bell is now 70% sure he'll make a bid for governor. According to the article, the last Congressman to become governor was 1907.

3. Kay Bailey Hutchison spoke at the NRA convention as well. She said:

"The French government has raised its terror alert from 'run' to 'hide,'" she joked, bringing a round of laughter. "The only higher levels in France are 'surrender' and 'collaborate.'"

This earned her a rebuke from the Chronicle editorial page.

Shucks, Kay, we thought it was funny.

4. Speaking of Kay being funny, she was in a red cape with blue stars last week. She did it to raise money for DC's Arena Stage.

Last time she did something like this, she ended up hugging Hillary.

Shorts

2005-04-16T08:20:00.000-07:00

1. Hutchison offers support for Delay: "The Majority Leader is the target of an unfair media feeding frenzy. He deserves to have people actually listen to what he has to say."

2. Leubsdorf in the DMN offers a column on speculation as to what will happen to Kay Bailey's Senate seat. The article offers Dewhurst and AG Abbott as potential Bonilla challengers. Dewhurst has said he wants to succeed Perry as guv in 2010, and claims to have been misquoted about running for Senate in 2010. Abbott originally was running against Dewhurst for lt guv in 2002 before switching to the AG race when Cornyn ran for Senate.

3. Tommy Merritt says that former Perry Chief of Staff Mike Toomey had Merritt pledge to support Craddick as Speaker in return for Perry's endorsement. Merritt was facing a GOP primary challenge, and had recently been defeated in a state senate race in part due to the efforts of one of Perry's consultants. (Statesman) (AP)

4. Perry hosted the Baylor Lady Bears basketball team. Then he knocked over their trophy.

5. KBH raised $700,000 this quarter. Perry and Strayhorn can't raise money while the legislature is in session. Kay has $7.2 million in cash on hand, while Rick has $7.9 million. Carole has $5.7 mil.

Rick and Kay aren't going to have problems raising money. The most surprising thing to me is that Kay continues to raise significant amounts of money for her federal account in $2000 chunks per donor when she could open a state account and raise unlimited amounts per donor.

5. Perry released his tax returns. He made about 180k.

6. Perry spoke to the national NRA convention in Houston. The NRA is always good to have on your side. Meanwhile, neither Rick, Carole or Kay have a concealed weapons permit. Perry did talk about his love of hunting.

7. Deidre Delisi, Perry's current chief of staff, is asking lobbyists to support the governor on school finance by contributing to an ad campaign in support of the proposals.

8. Kay speaks at Fiesta in San Antonio. Shame Bexar County doesn't have good turnout in GOP primaries.

This is what we won't see in the next 12 months

2005-04-14T05:21:00.000-07:00

An AP file photo from March 13, 2000

Assessing the Dems

2005-04-13T07:29:00.000-07:00

In my interview with National Summary that I posted on yesterday, I said:

It's possible that the [GOP] primary could be so nasty and divisive that the nominee would limp wounded into the general (election) and be beaten by a Democrat. It's not likely though. To capitalize on such a situation, the Democrats would need a credible candidate. At this point, it's tough to see who that would be.

I'd like to elaborate. After taking a look at my sidebar, I see four candidates. I haven't heard any other rumors -- I'll try and alleviate that by checking in with some of my Dem friends in the next few weeks -- so I'll comment on the four I know.

Chris Bell -- He's already running, even if he hasn't made it official, so I'll talk about him the most. I find it hard to take a guy seriously who loses with 31.3% of the vote in his party's primary as an incumbent Congressman. Yes, his district was about 50% new -- 43,000 of the 83,000 who voted in the 2004 general election were new to his district -- and Bell's district was made more black and minority (voting age population -- 36% black and 30% Hispanic). Also, black turnout was high due to the Allen-Wilson house primary battle. However, Bell's 31% means that he ran a miserable campaign. Redistricting hurt him -- and maybe he would have lost anyway -- but he underperformed his district in a big way.

Can he raise the money necessary for the race after a performance like that? I'm skeptical.

Tony Sanchez -- Yawn. Were Democrats so impressed by his showing in 2002 that they want to take a second go-round? Doubtful.

Jim Turner -- I've heard the rumors that he's considering a statewide bid, but since he's spending most of his time lobbying in DC, it seems less likely that he wants to come back to Texas. He seems like the strongest candidate of the bunch -- my understanding is that he had a solid reputation in DC -- but I have my doubts as to whether he runs.

John Sharp -- Lose a race for lt. gvv twice so you run for guv? I'm guessing he'd find it a bit tougher to raise money this time around. Also, his 2002 grand strategy -- the Dream ticket with Sanchez at the top -- didn't work out so well. That's not good for the political reputation. On the other hand, I know folks who claim Sharp was talking about running for guv back when he was an Aggie.
So maybe Sharp has the ambition to give it another shot.

Appraisal cap bill goes down

2005-04-13T06:49:00.000-07:00

Rick Perry lost the legislative battle when Dwayne Bohac's property tax appraisal cap bill went down in the House. However, he'll keep it as a campaign issue.

I haven't seen any primary polling numbers on the issue, but my sense is that appraisal caps are both a popular and intense issue in a GOP primary campaign. Those who care about property tax appraisal caps are likely to feel strongly.

There's also the issue of timing: property tax bills generally come due around January 31, and the primary will be just a month later on March 7.

Perry has tied himself pretty strongly to this issue. I don't know where KBH stands, but she'll try to use the issue as part of a larger failure of Perry's leadership whether she supports lowering the appraisal cap or not.

Interview with me

2005-04-12T10:56:00.000-07:00

There's an interview with me over at National Summary about the state of the primary. So if you want to read more about my thoughts on the race, surf on over.

Dewhurst comments at fundraiser

2005-04-12T06:45:00.000-07:00

Dewhurst at a Montgomery County fundraiser:

The small -- but influential -- crowd applauded Lt. Governor David Dewhurst when he boldly announced his full support for Gov. Rick Perry's 2006 re-election campaign and quickly followed that he would put himself on the block for the Senate seat in 2010.

When I first read this, I thought Dewhurst was assuming that Hutchison would run for re-election, and then retire, and he'd take her seat.

Then I realize that Texas won't have a Senate seat up for election in 2010. I guess that's the joke.

Weekend roundup

2005-04-12T06:10:00.000-07:00

1. Amarillo Globe News likes Perry's pick of Amarilloan Phil Johnson to the Supreme Court noting that "The Panhandle was Republican long before the rest of the state followed our lead."

2. The Associated Press caught up with the shadow primary over the weekend. Nothing really new here, but it did get picked up across the nation.

3. Perry appears in a new ad to promote Texas as a business friendly place. It's paid for with private dollars and not shown in Texas; some good government types still object.

4. Perry and KBH both made bets over the Baylor Lady Bears title game.

2005-04-08T06:31:00.000-07:00

Rick Casey rehashes the recent gossip about Kay running for guv because she's tired of the commute to DC.

What are we to make of this?

That Perry supporters are making up conversations out of whole cloth?

...

I've also assumed that Hutchison is considering running for governor because it is no fun being a moderate-to-conservative Republican in a Congress where the tone is set by the likes of Dick Cheney, Bill Frist and Tom DeLay.

Come to think of it, these guys don't look like they're having fun either, and they're in power.

In fact, the only one having fun in Washington these days is Jon Stewart of The Daily Show, and he's in New York.

Wanting to return to Texas not only shows healthy maternal instincts on Hutchison's part, but it also shows a certain amount of sanity.

Of course, the implication of Perry supporter Brannon's report of her alleged conversation with Hutchison is that the only reason she wants to be governor is to have more time with her children.

That's why I'm puzzled by the response of her spokesman.

The better reply, it seems to me, would be for Hutchison to say, "Of course I would like to be in Texas with my children. But I'm also concerned about state leadership that appears to be failing children regarding both schools and health care. If I decide to run for governor, it will be because I think I can do a better job for all Texas children."

It wouldn't satisfy some religious conservatives who think all mothers should be at home, but it sure would resonate with a lot of working middle-class mothers who have seen their schools tighten their belts because of state funding cutbacks.

And after all, if Hutchison decides to run for governor it will be a wager that suburban mothers and fathers who care about schools and health care outnumber members of the starve-the-government right, even in the Republican primary.

Yawn. This column seemed like a space filler.

The wisdom of crowds

2005-04-07T20:51:00.000-07:00

If you believe in the wisdom of crowds, then you might take note of the fact that Henry Bonilla had a solid fundraising performance the first 3 months of the year:

After three months of fundraising, Rep. Henry Bonilla said Wednesday he'll have nearly $2 million in cash for a potential race for the U.S. Senate if Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison makes a run against Gov. Rick Perry next year.

Bonilla, R-San Antonio, said he raised about $780,000 since January at fundraisers in Texas and Washington.

The events coincided with speaking engagements aimed at raising his profile in Dallas, Houston, Austin and other cities where he's less known.

"The more money you have early on the better off you are when the race starts," Bonilla told the San Antonio Express-News.

...

Bonilla's winter fundraising schedule boosted his campaign coffers with record results. He raised more than the House speaker and minority and majority leaders during the same period in 2004.

The San Antonio lawmaker, a former KENS-TV producer, showed $1.17 million in cash on hand at the end of 2004, according to the Federal Election Commission.

Bonilla said his quarterly report, due March 31, would boost that to nearly $2 million.

Not bad. There are obviously some donors in Texas who think Senator Hutchison isn't running for re-election.

Hutchison spokesman denies it

2005-04-05T20:42:00.000-07:00

The Chronicle picks up the Midland Reporter Telegram gossip:

Midland GOP Chairwoman Sue Brannon told the Houston Chronicle that Hutchison recently confided to her that she is "worn out going back and forth" from Dallas to Washington, D.C. "She just said, 'Oh, Susan, I'm ready to come back to Texas and be with my children,' " Brannon said.

Brannon said she told Hutchison that she should stay in the Senate where her seniority would do the state some good. She said she also told Hutchison that she should not challenge Perry because that would be divisive and could hurt the Republican Party.

"She said, 'I don't want to hear that,' " Brannon said.

Hutchison and her husband, Ray, have two adopted children, both age 3.

Hutchison spokesman David Beckwith said the senator never had such a conversation with Brannon or anyone else.

Beckwith said Hutchison lives with her family in Dallas and commutes to Washington to work. He said she often is able to be in Dallas up to five days a week and at other times brings her children to Washington. He said a nanny takes care of the children when the senator cannot be there.

Going for the youth vote

2005-04-05T20:38:00.000-07:00

Politicians are starting younger and younger:

Texas GOP Sens. Kay Bailey Hutchison and John Cornyn are coming to a TV near you, chatting it up with Sesame Street characters Elmo and Rosita. In a public-service announcement each taped for Sesame Street's 36th season -- which starts Monday on Public Broadcasting Service stations -- Hutchison and Cornyn promote healthy eating, nutrition and exercise.

"With more than 30 percent of American children overweight, we all bear the responsibility of helping our children learn early on the benefits of healthy eating and exercise," Hutchison said.

Cornyn's take: "What better way to encourage healthy habits in preschool-aged children than to use the trusted friends of Sesame Street."

P isn't taking sides

2005-04-05T20:35:00.000-07:00

George P. Bush isn't taking sides:

Mr. Bush said he was not taking sides in the potential 2006 gubernatorial primary showdown between Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison and incumbent Rick Perry.

"I'm going to stay out of it," he said. "Some people look at it as a potential to tear apart the party, but I think it's going to bring us together. It will give us a chance to hone our message."

I didn't see him at BeerBike.

FYI: A Rice alum has never been guv of Texas.

Williams on the race

2005-04-05T20:29:00.000-07:00

The Midland Reporter Telegram writes up gubernatorial candidate Clayton Williams' support for Perry.

Prominent Midland oilman Clayton Williams Monday said he strongly opposes U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's possible opposition to the re-election of Gov. Rick Perry next year and will contribute heavily to Perry's campaign if the internecine struggle takes place.

En route with his wife Modesta from their Alpine area ranch, the CEO of Clayton Williams Energy said he values the work Hutchison does in Washington and will do everything in his power to see she continues doing it.

"I support Gov. Perry because we have not had any tax increases and because redistricting was a real battle and now we have representation in Congress proportionate to our true demographics," Williams said. "I also strongly support him because he has been responsible with his economic development fund for helping Midland directly.

...

Williams, who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 1990, doesn't have a top limit on how much he'd give Perry for the March 2006 primary. But he indicated it could be hefty. "It depends on what the price of oil and gas is," he said.

...

Brannon said Hutchison recently confided in her during a Basin appearance that she has a personal reason to take the governorship from Perry, who is completing his first full four-year term after following President Bush into the office. "She told me she adopted two kids, 4 and 5, and doesn't want to raise them in Washington," Brannon said.

"I said, 'You knew that when you adopted those children, and a nanny is raising them anyway!' That's her main reason. They're in Dallas, and she said it's wearing her out going back and forth."

Gotta love the gossip.

Brannon said Perry did yoeman's work by resisting political pressure and calling three special legislative sessions during the 2003 redistricting ordeal.

"Rick stuck by his guns on that and really helped Midland," she said, referring to Conaway's subsequent election in the new 11th Congressional District.

"I don't think she's going to have Midland's support this time. I honestly don't think she'll run because she won't run if she can't win." Brannon said she couldn't support Perry in a contested party primary but is within her authority to oppose Hutchison's gubernatorial candidacy.

the WaPo picks the story up...a week late

2005-04-05T19:53:00.000-07:00

Mike Allen and Brian Faler:

The 46-second video shows Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Tex.) hugging -- twice -- with pair of cheek rubs thrown in for good measure.

This was no undercover effort to document secret bipartisanship. The clip was recorded and e-mailed by supporters of Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R), who is likely to be challenged by Hutchison for the GOP nomination when he runs for reelection next year.

One statewide Republican incumbent trying to smear another is unusual, even in today's few-holds-barred political culture. The tape was made March 3 at Capitol Hill's Sewall-Belmont House, a landmark of the women's suffrage movement, during a Women's History Month event.

"I'm delighted that Kay is my partner on so many important fronts," Clinton told the audience, to applause. At one point in the crudely spliced video, Clinton purses her lips to plant a smacker on the Texan, who leans in. One frame shows the two rubbing right cheeks.

Aides to the senator said that when reporters from the Austin American-Statesman and Fort Worth Star-Telegram both called Hutchison's office on the same day last week to report that they had received the video from Republicans, it was pretty obvious who was behind it. Event organizers said only two cameras had been on hand: one from Home and Garden Television, the event's sponsor, and the other from a hired team based in Arlington, Va., that said it was working for Perry.

Chris Paulitz, Hutchison's spokesman, called it "stalking a U.S. senator."

Luis Saenz, Perry's campaign director, said the campaign provided the video to four or five "key supporters and consultants," and that somehow it got on the Web. "The campaign did not distribute it," said Saenz, who was unapologetic. "Any good campaign operation monitors what potential opponents say and do," he added. "Any potential opponent is not going to get a free ride."

Now, the Hutchison forces have turned up an artifact of their own. It's a letter signed by Perry in 1993, when he was Texas agriculture commissioner and Clinton was first lady, presiding over the ill-fated Task Force on National Health Care Reform.

"Dear Mrs. Clinton," the letter begins. "I think your efforts in trying to reform the nation's health care system are most commendable."

While Blogger wasn't working...the anti-gambling rally

2005-04-05T19:15:00.000-07:00

Eileen at In the Pink Texas covered the anti-gambling rally where both Tina Benkiser and Charles Soechting showed up to say that state GOP and Dem party chairs don't want more gambling.

Andrew at BOR linked to this quote by Perry spokesman Kathy Walt: "The fact of the matter is the governor has never been a proponent of gambling." However, the AP story he links to no longer contains that quote.

If Walt said that, well...that's an outrageous claim. Perry certainly supported gambling as a means for revenue to pay for school finance.

UPDATE: While the AP article no longer contains that quote, GoogleNews has a cache of Walt's quote.

I'm back

2005-04-05T19:12:00.000-07:00

I do apologize for the lack of posts over the past few days.

I couldn't get Blogger to work for much of the early part of the weekend, and then BeerBike (which is a bit like Homecoming for Rice) was this weekend.

Then a combination of job search (I'm looking for a job energy trading) and computer troubles kept me away.

I'm back now. Unfortunately, for some reason I'm not getting The Hotline for free anymore.

Blogger difficulties

2005-03-30T08:10:00.000-08:00

I can't get Blogger to work, so posting may be light today.

Another news cycle

2005-03-30T07:54:00.000-08:00

Ratcliffe -- Chron:

Gov. Rick Perry said Tuesday no one should be surprised that he videotaped potential GOP challenger Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in an appearance with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, someone who is an "anathema" to Republicans.

Perry said Hutchison's recent personal appearance with Clinton is different from when he wrote the then-first lady in 1993 praising her efforts to reform the national health care system. Clinton, the wife of former President Clinton, now is a Democratic senator from New York.

"Don't get confused that I'm for Hillary Clinton," Perry said. "She is not someone I support and certainly not going to support her when she starts running for president of the United States."

Perry's campaign last week admitted having a camera crew shoot video of Hutchison with Clinton on March 3 at a ceremony in the nation's capital on the preservation of the Sewall-Belmont House, a historic building where suffragists fought a century ago for women's right to vote.

In the short video, the pair embrace briefly and Clinton describes Hutchison as "my partner on so many important fronts."

Perry said his video showed Hutchison is "supporting her (Clinton's) principles there. It speaks for itself."

Hutchison campaign manager Terry Sullivan asked, "What principles? Historic preservation or women's right to vote?"

Sullivan said Perry is being "hypocritical" by criticizing Hutchison for a public appearance when he wrote her a letter commending Clinton for her work on what Sullivan calls "socialized medicine."

He said Perry's campaign also has lied about the role it played in distributing the video to Republican activists.

"No one should be shocked about the stalking, about following someone around with a camera. It's that the governor's campaign lied," Sullivan said.

Perry said campaigns routinely shoot such video of potential opponents. He said that he had crews take such pictures of Democrat John Sharp in their 1998 campaign for lieutenant governor and that Sharp had crews take video of him.

Perry said average Texans will see this as a routine part of politics.

"I don't think average people are surprised at all when, in the political arena, when you're hanging around with a person who is absolutely anathema to the philosophical position of the Republican Party that it's not brought to the Republicans' attention," Perry said. "I think they'd consider that to be part of the process."

Perry said the letter he wrote to Clinton in 1993 as Texas agriculture commissioner calling her work on health care reform "commendable" and "worthy" was nothing more than an effort to get her to pay more attention to rural health care needs.

"I will continue to write letters to people and that content, which I'm sure you were going to tell the entire content, is to help the people of rural Texas," Perry said.

Sullivan said, after hearing Perry's statements, "the governor is a far bigger hypocrite than I could have imagined."

Sullivan said Perry said with a "straight face ... in what seemed like one long, rambling, run-on sentence" that anyone who appears on stage with Clinton is not a good Republican but that he is "commending her for the biggest socialist policy this county has seen."

I've written before that I think the issue helps Perry more than Hutchison. No Republican facing a primary wants Hillary Clinton to say that they are "partners on many important issues" after acting friendly and hugging.

Perry obviously thinks the issue plays well for him, because he's keeping the issue alive for another news cycle. It appears that he made an effort to talk to the Chronicle -- so far, no one else has the story -- which gives the impression that Perry wants to keep the story alive.

UPDATE: The AP picked up the story.

The letter

2005-03-29T14:52:00.000-08:00

The text of the letter then Ag Commish Rick Perry wrote to First Lady Hillary Clinton.

Strayhorn announces her consultants

2005-03-29T12:21:00.000-08:00

AP Wire:

Strayhorn has hired pollster and consultant John McLaughlin of McLaughlin & Associates and media consultant Alex Castellanos of National Media Inc.

McLaughlin worked on the campaign of California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. Castellanos has worked as a consultant to President Bush.

"I have had three successful statewide campaigns with Alex, and in two of those I was the top vote-getter in the state," Strayhorn said. "I am honored they are joining me on this mission."

Hutchison camp fires back

2005-03-29T09:36:00.000-08:00

Ratcliffe in the Chron:

A week after Gov. Rick Perry's campaign tried to link one of his potential GOP primary rivals to U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, a 1993 letter emerged in which Perry called Clinton's efforts at health care reform "commendable."

Perry's Republican allies circulated a videotape last week that has a shot of Clinton with U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Texas, at a nonpartisan event on historic preservation.

The videotape played up a brief hug and air kiss between the women and featured then-first lady Clinton, now the Democratic senator from New York, saying she is "delighted that Kay is my partner on so many fronts."

On Monday, Hutchison's campaign aides said the Perry letter to Clinton showed he was a hypocrite in making the videotape.

"It's a double standard. It's the ultimate in hypocrisy," said Hutchison campaign manger Terry Sullivan.

"I'm glad to see in at least some instances the governor is willing to reach across party lines," he said. "Unfortunately, it's for Hillary Clinton's socialized medicine plan."

Perry campaign manager Luis Saenz said there is no comparison between Perry writing a letter on behalf of his constituents in 1993 and Hutchison accepting praise in person from "a rather liberal New York senator."

Perry's letter falls far short of actually being an endorsement of Clinton's health care proposal. But it was written at a time when some commentators already were describing her plan of government-sponsored HMOs and health care cooperatives as "socialism."

Perry was state agriculture commissioner at the time, a position he had won in 1990 after switching from the Democratic to the Republican Party.

"I think your efforts in trying to reform the nation's health care system are most commendable," Perry wrote.

Perry asked Clinton to take special notice of the health care needs of farmers, ranchers and people in rural areas as she worked on trying to overhaul national health care.

This made the very top of The Hotline:

A week after his camp circulated a video of Clinton praising Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX), Gov. Rick Perry (R) has to answer for a letter in which he called Clinton's '93 health care efforts "commendable." Shocking, we know. What this little back-n-forth teaches: 1) Hutchison is still very serious about running for TX GOV. 2) Rank-n-file GOPers are incredibly obsessed with Hillary

Apparently there were inside-the-Beltway rumors that Hutchison wasn't running for guv.

The message grid

2005-03-28T16:43:00.000-08:00

Campaigns often make a grid of what they intend to say. Here's how I see the message grid in a Perry vs Hutchison race.

Perry on Perry:
I'm a real conservative.
I've gotten things done -- TTC, balanced budget, tort reform, school finance.
I'm for tax cuts.
I'm pro-life.

Perry on Hutchison:
She's moderate
She's pro-choice
She's more effective with her seniority in DC (a subtle pre-announcement message)

Hutchison on Hutchison:
I'm conservative.
I will show real leadership.
I'll fix school finance.
I'm anti-gambling.

Hutchison on Perry:
He hasn't led.
He failed on school finance.
He's a former Dem; chaired Al Gore's 1988 presidential bid in Texas.
He's pro-gambling.

Kay gets in the news

2005-03-28T14:30:00.000-08:00

It's generally considered easier to get in the media when you're a governor than a Senator. However, even Senators can get free media sometimes:

U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's swing through Central Texas last week lacked the trappings of a campaign -- no red "Kay" signs, no balloons, no banners, seemingly all business.

Yet there were moments that felt campaign-like.

Here and in Bastrop and San Marcos, rapt groups learned that Hutchison's great-great-great-grandfather was among the signers of the Texas Declaration of Independence.

"We all appreciate how wonderful our state is," she said Tuesday at the refurbished Lee County Courthouse.

And as she, her husband, Ray, and their two children traced the historic El Camino Real de Tejas in a motor home, she couldn't dodge hints of the possible donnybrook to come if she challenges Gov. Rick Perry for re-election next year.

...

A Hutchison aide said her tour, which started Monday near the Sabine River in East Texas and ended Wednesday in Eagle Pass, was no place for "political questions."

Hutchison said: "I don't think we ought to be talking about politics during the (state) legislative session. I am avoiding doing that. I want the Legislature to focus on so many important issues facing our state. And I am not doing political things."

The rest of the article is mostly quotes about KBH running for guv.

Keep it alive?

2005-03-28T13:35:00.000-08:00

Keeping the story alive?

When does a nonstory become a news story?

If you ask a political operative, the answer is: "When it helps my side."

Case in point: The camp of Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison made a mighty attempt last week to pooh-pooh video footage from Washington, showing Texas' senior senator being buddy-buddy at an event with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, the New York Democrat.

The Hutchison camp insisted that the exchange of kind words and a couple of hugs was just common courtesy among senators, regardless of party affiliation. But they also knew that such footage could be lethal in a Republican primary against the Texas governor next year.

Once word leaked out that the Perry camp had used political funds to hire the camera crew to capture the camraderie, Hutchison's handlers wasted no time making sure the story had legs strong enough to run at least one more day.

Were I Luis Saenz, I would be thinking, "Please don't throw me in the briar patch!"

Hutchison's camp thinks that Perry looks bad because Perry's campaign sent a videotape of Kay and Hillary and then was less than truthful about it. Thus, they want to keep the story alive.

Color me skeptical.

Keeping the story alive another day just strengthens the impression that Kay and Hillary are friends.

Why? Perry has a layer of protection -- his campaign staff. Even if he's directing everything that the campaign does, he's only indirectly linked to the story. KBH is directly in the story -- she's the one in the video.

Moreover, the story hits at a potential KBH weakness: that primary voters might think she isn't conservative enough. What Perry weakness does the story hit? That he wants to be re-elected? That he's mean? That he's political?

If I were KBH's camp, I would have let the story die.

Factchecking

2005-03-28T12:29:00.000-08:00

1. Saturday I noted that though Wayne Slater claimed 34 of 62 State Republican Exec Cmte members had endorsed Perry's re-election, I counted only 30.

I re-counted, and I still get 30 (based on Perry's steering cmte, and SREC leadership). Perhaps Perry has since added to his steering committee or the TexasGOP SREC membership isn't current, but I doubt it. I emailed Slater, so hopefully he'll respond.

2. In the same article, Slater called KBH finance co-chair Pat Oxford a "Dallas lawyer." In fact, Oxford works in Houston.

FWST on the videotape kerfuffle

2005-03-26T21:16:00.000-08:00

The Fort Worth Star-Telegram ed board doesn't like Carole. And it doesn't look like they're happy with Rick either:

The pettiness of party politics has never been so evident as in the feigned outcry from some state Republican leaders about a recent joint appearance by Sens. Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Texas, and Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y.

...

What is more disturbing and alarming is that these party leaders find it objectionable that two members of the U.S. Senate can show respect and common courtesy for each other. These are traits that are becoming more and more rare among our nation's top elected officials. Rather than rue such behavior we ought to rejoice in it.

It is also regrettable that the Perry campaign finds it necessary to hire camera crews to tail the senior senator from Texas, and then use the video footage to try to paint her as a demon.

Although Hutchison may one day become a political challenger, Perry and all other candidates should know that Texans expect better from those they elect to represent them.

Hutchison and Clinton should be applauded for working together, for they are proving what others in Congress must learn: Common decency and cooperation should be the norm on Capitol Hill, not the exception.

Those of either political party who don't understand that should be put on notice that it is they who should be declared obsolete and, therefore, unfit to serve us.

Videotape brouhaha aftermath, part 2

2005-03-26T21:11:00.000-08:00

Todd Gillman, DMN

The video of Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison air-kissing Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton struck a nerve. For Texas conservatives, the footage -- obtained and spread by Gov. Rick Perry's camp -- underscored doubts about Ms. Hutchison's conservative bona fides.

Bad timing for Ms. Hutchison, who's worked hard lately to signal to core GOP voters that she really is a conservative.

She's filed a bill aimed at curbing indecency on television, spoken out for congressional action to restore Terri Schiavo's feeding tube and pushed for more Border Patrol agents. And that's just in the last two weeks. Earlier this year, she stepped out front on a proposed constitutional ban on gay marriage.

Cathie Adams, president of Texas Eagle Forum, said the senator "absolutely" has been making a play for the right lately, and the Clinton video underscored the artifice.

"Her record is not good," said Ms. Adams, who has endorsed the governor as he girds for a challenge from the senator.

To Ms. Adams, votes long ago say more than recent press releases. She cited a Hutchison vote five years ago against condemning China's one-child-per-couple policy and others to finance the National Endowment for the Arts, which had been accused of funding sacrilegious art.

Yet the national Eagle Forum gives Ms. Hutchison high marks: 80 percent on last year's scorecard, 90 percent the year before that. The American Conservative Union gave her an 84 last year, and a 91 lifetime. The National Right to Life Committee, an anti-abortion group, rated her 100 for the last Congress and 90 for the previous two years.

The nonpartisan National Journal deems her the 31st most conservative senator, roughly middle of the GOP pack.

...

He cited votes she cast on nearly identical Senate resolutions affirming Roe vs. Wade as "appropriate" and saying it secured an important constitutional right. She voted no in 1999 and yes in 2003. The newer version omitted a claim that before Roe, women were "forced" to undergo dangerous illegal procedures, a change she called key.

...

Tim Lambert, head of the Texas Home School Coalition and a former GOP national committeeman, said many conservatives are angry that Ms. Hutchison supports stem cell research and opposed an appeals court nominee who publicly embraced the biblical view that wives should be subservient to husbands.

"She was there with Hillary Rodham Clinton and other liberal senators" on that nominee, he said. "I think she's a moderate."

...

"There's always going to be detractors with a cynical mindset," Mr. Paulitz said, "but Senator Hutchison is voting and speaking her heart, as she always has. It's just that now, some people are finally paying attention."

Brouhaha aftermath

2005-03-26T20:44:00.000-08:00

Jay Root, FWST:

A secretly recorded video. An alleged political threat to a state senator. A faked phone call to a talk radio program.

And the race, if there is one, is still a year away.

As if any evidence of it were needed, the potential contest between Gov. Rick Perry and Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison is on the verge of becoming a Republican Party blood bath.

...

Hutchison campaign manager Terry Sullivan called the Perry tactics a "Nixonian kind of bullying."

"Is this the Gestapo?" he said. "You can't disagree with the governor on issues without them sending camera crews halfway across the country? Obviously, they're desperate."

For the record, the camera crew was based in the Washington area and received $2,100 from the Perry campaign to film the event, officials said.

Sullivan characterized Hutchison as very reluctant to engage Perry head-to-head despite their differences on key issues such as taxes and gambling.

She "bit her tongue on the payroll tax, bit her tongue on the gambling coming back up," said Sullivan, referring to tax and slot-machine proposals that state legislators are debating.

"She's gone out of her way not to start a feud," Sullivan said.

But Perry operatives say Hutchison political consultant Chad Wilbanks did little to stop the feuding when he pretended to be "Charles from Flower Mound" during a phone call to the radio talk show of conservative moderator Mark Davis on WBAP/820 AM this month.

The Hutchison campaign, after remaining silent on the issue, acknowledged this week that Wilbanks was, in fact, "Charles."

"It was certainly not anything planned by the campaign," said Sullivan, adding that the fake call was "absolutely" a mistake.

Saenz, the Perry campaign director, said the flap showed "the character of whatever campaign they're going to run."

...

It's too early to say whether the intraparty tit-for-tat has scarred either Hutchison or Perry. Harvey Kronberg, editor of the online political newsletter Quorum Report, said the surreptitious filming of Hutchison with Clinton shows the Perry campaign is trying to bring down the senator's approval ratings and frighten her.

"I think this is all just chest-beating to send a message to Kay that it's going to be an ugly fight and to try to scare her out of the race," Kronberg said. Hutchison officials say they're "embarrassed" for Perry, not frightened by him.

Newsflash: Perry wants Hutchison to remain in Senate

2005-03-25T23:31:00.000-08:00

Wayne Slater in the Dallas Morning News files a sympathetic report that many folks in the TexasGOP are asking Hutchison to stay in the Senate and not challenge Perry.

As Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison eyes a possible race against Gov. Rick Perry, a network of key Republican activists and power players is moving to send her a clear message: Don't do it.

In letters, e-mails and direct conversations, nervous Republicans have told Ms. Hutchison they want her to seek re-election and abandon thoughts of targeting the incumbent governor in what they expect would be a fractious GOP primary.

Aides to Ms. Hutchison, who will spend next week on a fund-raising tour of the state, dismiss the effort. They say that the opposition is being orchestrated by the Perry political camp and that Ms. Hutchison has widespread support.

But the prospects of an expensive, intra-party battle between the two has rattled many of the GOP faithful, according to interviews with top Republicans and supporters on both sides.

"It would be like throwing a hand grenade in a chicken yard," said former Texas Republican Party chairman George Strake, a Perry supporter.

In a March 12 letter, 34 members of the 62-person State Republican Executive Committee urged Ms. Hutchison "to stay the course as our United States senator from Texas." Some blue-chip GOP contributors have cautioned Ms. Hutchison in face-to-face meetings, allies of both candidates acknowledge.

Well, I counted 30 out of 62. I don't quite understand the discrepancy.

Dallas lawyer Pat Oxford, co-chairman of the senator's statewide finance committee, said Ms. Hutchison is attractive to many in the party hierarchy and grass-roots Republicans -- but not everybody is free to talk about it.

"The truth is, Senator Hutchison is not in a position to muscle up on anybody. The governor is, because of appointments and legislative initiatives," he said.

...

In a bid to boost her campaign treasury and show off some support from some of the party's marquee names, Ms. Hutchison has scheduled four fund-raisers next week in Fort Worth, Dallas, Houston and San Antonio. The events are for her Senate account, but under a recently enacted federal law, she could transfer the money for a governor's race.

Invitations boast a number of prominent Republicans as sponsors. The Dallas event on March 31, for example, includes Mr. Oxford, former Republican state chairman Fred Meyer, long-time GOP financier Charles Wyly, former Secretary of State George Bayoud and Dallas lawyer Mike Boone.

"I don't see a major pushback against Kay," Mr. Boone said.

"People believe she's a great leader. They believe we're lacking leadership in Austin and she can fill that void," he said. "While people are asking the question, 'Kay don't run,' isn't it more justified to ask the question, 'Rick, should you really be running?' "

While her fund-raising invitations suggest prominent Republican support, not everyone remained publicly committed if she decides to run for governor.

San Antonio construction executive Bartell Zachry said through a spokeswoman that his support is for a Senate race.

"She's not running for governor. This is a Senate re-election finance event, and that's why Bartell is on the host committee," said Vicky Waddy.

Dallas County Republican chairman Nate Crain, who backs Mr. Perry, said a contested primary would be destructive.

"If that primary battle occurs, we're going to lose a great senator or we're going to lose a great governor. Nobody wants this contest," he said.

Dallas energy executive and longtime Republican activist Jim Neal agreed.

"The grassroots supporters here in Dallas and across the state are totally against this," he said.

One such veteran activist Ms. Hutchison has personally visited in an unsuccessful bid for support is Annette Hopkins of San Angelo.

"I want her to stay a senator," she said. "I told her I'd work hard for her again as senator, but I've committed to Governor Perry for governor."

In December, a meeting between Ms. Hutchison and prominent El Paso business leaders turned testy when they served notice they intended to raise money for Mr. Perry's re-election.

"Loyalty is the issue," said El Paso businessman Ted Houghton, who confronted Ms. Hutchison at the meeting. "There's a lot of good things happening for us, and we really don't want to rock the boat."

The Hutchison camp sees the hand of the Perry political team in the Republican network pressing the senator to stay put. But Mr. Sullivan challenged the strength of Mr. Perry's support, noting that the governor mustered only a slim majority of the party's state executive committee.

"If the governor was doing an even halfway good job in the eyes of the Republican Party," he said, "every one of them would have signed."

Term limits made her do it?

2005-03-25T06:10:00.000-08:00

R.G. Ratcliffe in the Chron:

U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's decision on whether to challenge Gov. Rick Perry in the GOP primary next year may rest heavily on whether she keeps a promise she made 13 years ago: to serve no more than two full terms in the Senate.

...

Hutchison made her promise in television ads and personal statements in 1994, and on election night she said:

"I've always said that I would serve no more than two full terms. This may be my last term, or I could run for one more. But no more after that. I firmly believe in term limitations and I plan to adhere to that."

Paulitz said Hutchison has not wanted to say anything before the current session of the Texas Legislature ends May 30.

"She has made every effort to avoid discussing policy differences during the legislative session because she wants the session to be successful," Paulitz said.

Hutchison has been making numerous public appearances around Texas in recent weeks. Her official federal campaign committee has a series of fund-raisers scheduled, including one Wednesday in Houston. Hutchison could transfer money from her federal account to a state race for governor.

...

She made term limits a major promise of her 1994 re-election campaign and included it in television commercials produced by David Weeks of Austin. Weeks now works for Perry's campaign.

Term limits were a popular Republican campaign issue in 1994, serving as a centerpiece of Newt Gingrich's Contract with America. Term limits also were one of the first agenda items dropped by Republicans once they gained control of the U.S. House.

The issue remains popular with voters, though, said Houston term limits activist Clymer Wright.

Wright noted that in 1994, San Antonio voters rejected an effort to relax term limit restrictions on their city council.

"If she ends up running for re-election just because she doesn't believe she can beat an incumbent governor — which I don't believe she can — then that's bad on both fronts," Wright said.

I don't know if I'd say term limits are "popular" with voters. There may be a plurality who favor term limits, but it's hardly the proximal factor in a voter's decision. In fact, this was the first I'd heard that KBH had taken a term limits pledge.

UPDATE: The Ratcliffe story is fortuitous for KBH. It's something that
would come out eventually, so why not now? It's a win-win for the
Senator either way. If she runs for guv against Perry, then she's keeping her word.
If she runs for Senate, the term limits pledge won't matter. She'll be easily re-elected.

Carole finds a friend

2005-03-25T05:04:00.000-08:00

FWST staff editorial:

Here's another surprise that's no surprise at all: Texas Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn has found another opportunity to use her office for political grandstanding and took full advantage of it -- even if it meant stabbing legislators in the back.

Here's the lesson for the Legislature: Don't trust her.

This time it was the House that was the victim of Strayhorn's insatiable appetite for attention. Next time it will be anyone else who provides her an opening.

When the House passed a tax bill earlier this month, its leaders worked with Strayhorn's staff each step of the way to see that the bill achieved its goal: a "revenue neutral" way to cut local school property taxes while adopting a new business tax and boosting other taxes to make up for the financial loss. (Don't get us wrong here. This Editorial Board opposed House Bill 3 and still considers it to be bad policy.)

...

She achieved what seems to be her one-and-only goal: drawing attention to Carole.

Perry sends out email supporting appraisalcap.com

2005-03-24T14:20:00.000-08:00

This afternoon Perry's campaign sent out an email supporting Dwayne Bohac's bill to cap appraisal increases.

Are you tired of skyrocketing property taxes? Next week, the Texas House of Representatives will vote on an appraisal cap measure that will decide whether or not the property tax cut recently passed by the House will last or be eaten up by appraisal creep.

Please visit the all-new AppraisalCap.com (http://www.AppraisalCap.com/) to learn how you can help lower our property taxes.

The bill is currently stalled in the house.

Hillary Clinton and videotape...

2005-03-24T06:57:00.000-08:00

Gardner Selby reported in the Statesman that a video of KBH being chummy with Hillary Clinton is being disseminated via email to GOP activists. I didn't get the clip, so I have to read about it in the Statesman. Guess that means I'm not very well connected, eh?

Watch the video here. It basically consists of Clinton saying that KBH is "[her] partner on so many important fronts" before showing the two hugging and posing for a few pictures together.

In short,it's rather silly and not to be taken seriously. But it's also not the sort of thing a Republican candidate wants to be circulated widely. [Incidentally, Clinton was also in Austin for a fundraiser.]

Hutchison spokesman Chris Paulitz accused aides of Perry of sending the video to state GOP leaders. Perry campaign manager Luis Saenz denied the charges.

Jay Root in the FWST also got a few quotes from some Republican activists calling the video "alarming" and "disturbing." Read his take here.

That was all yesterday. Today, Perry's campaign admits that it videotaped the clips. A Hutchison spokesman said it was "stalking" while Saenz replied that "Potential opponents trashing my governor are not going to get a free ride." (Statesman link -- Gardner Selby, Mike Ward) (FWST link -- Jay Root)

Saenz claims to have shared the tape -- which they paid $2000 to tape -- with supporters for its humor value, but he claims not to be reponsible for the clip currently circulating. Not surprisingly, the KBH campaign shot back that Perry's campaign had been "caught in a lie."

Meanwhile, Texas Sen. Bob Deuell claims that Hutchison spokesman David Beckwith (formerly of the Cornyn campaign, among others) told him that KBH was running, and that if he supported Perry, Deuell might get a primary challenge.

Remember "Charlie from Flower Mound"? The KBH campaign has confirmed that it was indeed Chad Wilbanks.

To quote Saenz, "We're being very aggressive in everything we do. And you ain't seen nothing yet."

This is gonna be a fun campaign. Especially for Democrats.

Gambling

2005-03-24T06:24:00.000-08:00

It's coming, most likely. Most perceptive observers have realized that there is a fairly high likelihood.

Harvey Kronberg reports for News8 -- though he hasn't reported in on Quorum Report, as far as I can tell -- that Perry, Craddick and Dewhurst have "all quietly signed off on gambling as the solution to the state's financial difficulties."

Kronberg claims that their tactical solution will be to offer Democrats a choice: if they want money for social welfare programs, then they'll have to vote for gambling. That way, Kronberg claims, Democrats will be to blame for gambling, while Republicans can claim a balanced budget. If it's in the form of a constitutional amendment, Perry won't even have to sign a gambling bill.

The troika of Craddick, Dewhurst, and Perry all oppose raising taxes. Cutting spending isn't easy, even for Republicans -- perhaps even more so, as the media is possibly more likely to give Democrats a pass when they propose less spending (see Bill Clinton, welfare reform).

Hutchison's camp claims that this is an abdication of leadership, particularly by Perry. They may be right, but I'm not sure how Hutchison would do it better. KBH is not known as a budget hawk in DC. For example, she's on the Appropriations Committee. So perhaps she'd be able cut spending more effectively than Perry, but cutting spending is pretty hard for politicians. I'm sure she won't offer that she's going to raise taxes, and she's come out against gambling.

Failure to lead will certainly be a theme of KBH's challenge to Perry. Will it stick? It probably depends on how well the school finance and tax bills turn out.

Note: I have a mild suggestion, though I don't generally do policy on this blog: California legalized poker sometime around the late 60's and early 70's. Would can't Texas do the same? Poker is currently undergoing a boom, with lots of folks (that is, pretty much all my friends) playing socially. It seems to me that this is a relatively mild form of gambling, as it is ultimately a game of skill. Moreover, the state could bring in billions over the long-term.

Poker is much better than VLTs -- like Perry originally proposed -- if gambling is to be legalized. Letting folks voluntarily choose to gamble seems better to me than involuntary taxes.

Strayhorn, HB3, and the numbers may not add up

2005-03-24T05:45:00.000-08:00

I haven't covered the fact that Comptroller Strayhorn says the numbers don't add up on HB3 (the House tax portion of school finance).

The reason is two-fold.

1. I don't think HB3 is going to resemble what the Senate passes or what becomes law. There'll probably be gambling in there somewhere.

2. I don't think Strayhorn is running for guv. There's almost no way she can win versus Perry and Hutchison. Given that Hutchison is about 95-98% chance to run (my estimations), I assume that Strayhorn will be running for re-election or to the Senate (though I doubt she'd beat Bonilla, Dewhurst and company).

23 of 38

2005-03-23T12:17:00.000-08:00

Chuck Todd, editor of The Hotline, compiles a ranking of the most vulnerable governors in the nation for his weekly column. Today's edition lists Perry 23rd out of 38. Here's his analysis:

Perry has decent poll numbers, but he's just not the favorite of the Austin crowd, which is why GOP Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison would be welcomed into a primary with open arms. Lately, there's been whispers she's having second thoughts about running. We'll see. Texas is an early primary state (March 2006), so expect some real decisions soon. If Hutchison gets in, expect many of the key Democratic constituencies to focus less on finding a candidate and more on helping Hutchison.

Personally, while I enjoy reading the DC political insider analysts -- Todd, Charlie Cook, Stu Rothenberg -- I usually find their analysis too inside-the-beltway.

Tacking right and KBH news

2005-03-22T21:23:00.000-08:00

1. Hutchison sponsored an amendment to add funding for 2000 agents on the US-Mexico border. Bush had only asked for 210 additional agents. Whether immigration will be an issue in a state office primary is questionable, of course, but many conservatives are upset over illegal immigration.

2. Gillman in the DMN:

Last week, Ms. Hutchison introduced a bill aimed at curbing violence and indecency on television - an issue dear to the hearts of social conservatives. The bill would require an assessment of how well the V-chip protects children from "excessive violence and sex," boost fines for airing obscenity, and make broadcasters double the amount of children's programming they offer.

Again, not a state issue. But it doesn't really matter.

3. Hutchison supports Schiavo resolution: "To starve a person to a slow death is inhumane."

It doesn't look like Hutchison is going to try to run to the right of Perry. She's just going to say that they're both conservative. I'll write more thoughts on this later.

Meanwhile, the Sherman Herald Democrat reports on the Senator's speech to the Grayson County GOP Lincoln Day dinner.

She's also getting some favorable coverage in East Texas, where she's riding the trail she helped procure funding for.

UPDATE: the New Braunfels Herald-Zeitung carries a story on Hutch's remarks, as does the San Antonio Express-News. I can identify with this:

"As longs as I've been in Texas and as many time as I've visited the counties in Texas, I've learned more about the state in the past two days," [KBH] said. "We have such a diversity in the topography and the ethnicity of our state."

There's always a few more places in Texas to go see.

Terry Sullivan, KBH manager

2005-03-22T20:32:00.000-08:00

Wayne Slater profiles Terry Sullivan, Hutchison's campaign manager:

If U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison challenges Gov. Rick Perry in a bare-knuckle Republican primary, her new campaign manager will bring a valuable lesson from his last job: "Don't take a knife to a gunfight."

Terry Sullivan steered the winning side in last year's fractious U.S. Senate race in South Carolina, a state where hardball Republican strategist Lee Atwater got his start. Campaigns there can be "all-out brawls," Mr. Sullivan said.

Ms. Hutchison has not said whether she will seek re-election to the Senate or try to unseat Mr. Perry. But a flurry of Texas fund-raisers beginning this month and the formation of a battle-tested political team suggest she's preparing to take on the incumbent next year, analysts say.

...

Mr. Sullivan said he is not deterred by the possibility of strong Perry support among the GOP grass roots.

"When was his last real primary on a high level?" he said. "It's one thing to go after a Democrat in Texas. But primary battles are very different than a general election. Personality has much more to do with it."

Mr. Sullivan's task would be to present Ms. Hutchison as a conservative – opposed to gambling, higher taxes and Mr. Perry's multi-billion toll-road project – and as a leader able to expand the party's appeal.

He did a pretty good job for his last boss.

No news is good news...?

2005-03-18T23:19:00.000-08:00

I haven't found much to blog about in the past day or two.

I am working on two longer posts though. One will be on turnout in the GOP primary, while the other will be a prediction of what the message grid will be for the campaigns.

AP wire on possible Senate school finance changes

2005-03-16T14:49:00.000-08:00

What we can expect to see in the Senate:

But, the two chambers could clash over a payroll tax as a new option for businesses in the House plan. The upper chamber also could object to House plans to increase the sales tax to 7.25 percent and an additional 3 percent tax on snack food and cosmetic surgery.

The Senate would likely raise money from a combination of a higher sales tax, motor vehicle tax, cigarette tax - all in the House plan - and an alcohol tax, though details on how much of each were fluid.

What happened to the stripper tax?

Early warning

2005-03-16T14:42:00.000-08:00

Statesman:

Gov. Rick Perry gives about 500 supporters 24 hours' notice of his appointments, his campaign director said Tuesday.

Luis Saenz said the practice is "not a big deal" when a reporter asked about an e-mail sent by Perry's campaign Monday identifying the governor's next appointee to the Texas Supreme Court. Perry publicly announced the nomination of Phil Johnson, a member of the 7th Court of Appeals in Amarillo, on Tuesday.

The e-mail, sent by Teresa Spears, Perry's campaign director of organization, states, "Just as a reminder, these 24-hour notices are intended for our Rick Perry Chairs and Steering Committee."

Perry, process, HB3, and the dustup in El Paso

2005-03-15T15:18:00.000-08:00

Remember the dustup in El Paso where Senator Hutchison and some El Paso leaders had a bit of a spat when they told her to stay in the Senate?

According to El Paso News' Gary Scharrer's column, the same folks lobbied El Paso legislators to support the school finance bills, HB2 and HB3. Those folks support Perry -- who needs to results on the school finance front -- and they also don't want El Paso's legislators to do anything that endangers appropriations for a medical school in El Paso.

Perry is playing an interesting game with the school finance bills. Generally in the past Perry has avoided discussing the legislative "process." With the school finance bills, Perry is suddenly very interested in talking process. He acknowledged that the House bills were imperfect, but he sent out an email urging his supporters to help the process along.

Perhaps Perry is learning from the unsuccessful special session he called on school finance last year:

Perry blew apart last year's special session when he called a news conference and declared a key House revenue proposal -- a tax on employee compensation -- to be an unacceptable hindrance to job creation. Then Craddick and the House simply gave up.

When the House re-introduced the same idea this year, Perry refrained from criticizing it. An employee compensation tax is part of House Bill 3, the revenue bill that is intended to cut local school property taxes and balance that loss with money from new taxes.

Perry even met privately with the House Republican Caucus on Thursday, helping members to refine HB 3. When asked in recent weeks for his thoughts on the House proposals, he has said only that initial bills usually change as the legislative session moves forward.
(Cite: Mike Norman in FWST)

Last year Perry labelled as deal breakers such things as the payroll tax included in HB3.

Rumor is that Perry is telling Capitol insiders that the payroll tax will be removed in the Senate. Perhaps some gambling will make it into the bill at some point to cover a revenue gap.

Unlike last year, Perry is trying to move the process and get people voting for school finance changes. Eventually, Perry hopes that he, Lt Gov Dewhurst and Speaker Craddick can stike a deal when both the Senate and House have passed different school finance bills. Perry's hope is that legislators will feel obliged to vote for the school finance compromise, since they voted for their chamber's original version.

If there's gambling in the bill, it'll be tough to get through the House, where the GOP caucus isn't fond of any sort of gambling. Meanwhile, Perry has to be careful because Hutchison has outflanked him to the right on gambling. He doesn't want to lose his conservative support in a primary against KBH.

It'll be fun to see the campaign to cajole hesitant legislators into supporting the final school finance bill. When the compromise comes down between the House and Senate bills with something that Governor Perry finds palatable, there will be things to like and dislike from everyone's perspective. Dewhurst, Craddick and particularly Perry (who needs it most politically) will be playing power politics in order to get the bill passed. For example, Perry's aide strongly denied that they were behind the pressure applied to the El Paso legislators over the medical school. They probably weren't, at this stage of the game. But all cards will be on the table when they're trying to pass the final school finance package.

Friedman on O'Reilly

2005-03-15T15:00:00.000-08:00

The transcript of Friedman on O'Reilly. A few excerpts and then the end of the interview:

Kinky Friedman joins us now. He's the author of the brand-new book "10 Little New Yorkers." his 17th book novel.

O'REILLY: So you want to run on -- are you conservative? Are you liberal? What are you?

FRIEDMAN: No, I wouldn't say I was either one of those. I think that's the problem. The Democrats got a good idea, the Republicans shoot it down. The Republicans have an idea, the Democrats kill it. I mean, I'm not for the parties. I'm for Texas.

FRIEDMAN: This is called "spiritual lifting." It's not heavy lifting. The governor of Texas should not be confused with Arnold Schwarzenegger. That's a powerful position. The governor of Texas can't do any heavy lifting really. It's not that powerful a position.

O'REILLY: So you're going to devote your governorship, should you win, to raising the morale and trying to...

FRIEDMAN: and the spiritual. Bring back the glory of Texas.

O'REILLY: OK. Then that means you're going to travel everywhere, go to all the high schools, speak and all of that.

FRIEDMAN: Absolutely. We're going to make that Lone Star shine again.

O'REILLY: All right. Well, this sounds good. I mean, I like this. I don't know how realistic it is because, number one, the powers that be are going to try to tear you to pieces.

FRIEDMAN: Absolutely.

O'REILLY: Have you got any skeletons in the closet there or...

FRIEDMAN: No, but I think Texans will see that as the bull kicking the rodeo clown. I mean, they'll know what that is.

(LAUGHTER)

FRIEDMAN: It's going to happen.

O'REILLY: The bull kicking the rodeo clown.

FRIEDMAN: Bill, they spent $100 million in negative campaign advertising in the last gubernatorial race.

O'REILLY: And you're going to do spiritual advertising?

FRIEDMAN: The coin of the spirit. That's right. I mean...

O'REILLY: OK. Are you a religious man, by the way?

FRIEDMAN: Yes, I'm a Judeo-Christian. Jesus and Moses are in my heart, and...

O'REILLY: Both of them there?

FRIEDMAN: And both of them were independents, by the way.

O'REILLY: They were, indeed.

FRIEDMAN: Yes.

O'REILLY: All right, Mr. Friedman. We're going to follow your campaign, and we -- don't get a big head, though. If you get -- we can't get Schwarzenegger on this program anymore. You know, when he was running, he was kicking our door, and now we can't talk to him. So you promise if you get elected, you'll come back on "The Factor".

FRIEDMAN: Definitely, and people can help through the Web site right now if they want.

O'REILLY: OK.

FRIEDMAN: They can volunteer, contribute and...

O'REILLY: The Web site is up. Kinky Friedman for governor. And, also, the new book.

FRIEDMAN: kinkyfriedman.com. Yes, "10 Little New Yorkers."

O'REILLY: "10 Little New Yorkers."

I don't take Friedman very seriously, but O'Reilly is the highest-rated cable news talker. If Friedman wants to be taken seriously, he's going to have to stop flacking his latest book and he'll need to take down the store from his campaign website.

And he'll need to answer the burning question: why did he once move from Texas to New York?

Gubernatorial news for the past few days

2005-03-15T14:17:00.000-08:00

Apologize for the slow posting over the past few days. Some of my old roommates from Rice came back to town.

1. Robert Rivard, editor of the SAEN writes a column about the traffic on I-35 and the Trans-Texas Corridor. Inasmuch as the column dwells on the need to ameliorate traffic, it's good for Perry. As Rivard notes, this could be the "enduring legacy" of Perry's governorship. That's often true of huge public works projects.

I wrote before that I thought the TTC would be a net loser politically for Perry, before updating the post to change my mind (link). Since Perry's opponents are likely to attack Perry for lack of accomplishments in the last 4 years, Perry really wants the TTC built.

2. Todd Gillman in the DMN divines the tea leaves:

An occasional search for clues to Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's political future:

•One day last week, the senator was seen outside the Senate chamber chatting and posing for photos with Texas members of the Alliance for I-69, a network of elected officials and civic leaders pushing for a new trade route linking Mexico to Canada, via Houston and East Texas.

Lots of votes in that corridor.

•A couple of days later, she announced that she'll take a three-day tour later this month tracing the route of El Camino Real de los Tejas – a 2,600-mile trail once used by settlers, American Indians and heroes of Texas independence. Ms. Hutchison spent three years securing a historic designation, which Mr. Bush signed into law last fall. Lots of vote-rich settlements along that route, from Nacogdoches to San Antonio to Eagle Pass, and she'll stop at a dozen of them.

•Then there was the meeting she hosted last week, where half the Texas congressional delegation lobbied four high-level Pentagon officials to protect Texas military bases from the next round of closures.

Television cameras were on hand.

•And she offered tough talk when Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice finalized a deal Thursday for Mexico to repay its water debt to Texas. The pact ended one feud but fueled another – the one between the senator and Gov. Rick Perry.

He lauded the deal and played up his role in the breakthrough, when he encouraged Mexico to tap sources beyond the region covered by a 1944 treaty to repay Texas farmers and utilities.

She emphasized that the deal forgives 155,000 of the 1.5 million acre-feet Mexico once owed – enough to flood almost a half-acre of land with water 1 foot deep. She wanted it all back, plus interest.

"This agreement is long overdue, and it may well be the best deal available," the senator said. "But the debt should have been paid in full."

3. Perry press release:

Gov. Rick Perry today named Philip Johnson, chief justice of the 7th District Court of Appeals, to the Supreme Court of Texas.

"I looked across Texas for an individual who could add to the High Court's depth of experience, who is committed to interpreting the law in accordance with the will of the legislature and our founding fathers, and who has demonstrated the high level of integrity demanded by the people of Texas," Perry said. "One extraordinary West Texan fit the bill and that is the Chief Justice of the 7th District Court of Appeals, Phil Johnson."

Here is the Statesman's take.

Kinky on Bill O'Reilly tonight

2005-03-14T13:46:00.000-08:00

Indie candidate Kinky Friedman is scheduled to appear on The O'Reilly Factor tonight.

Hutch opens Austin office

2005-03-11T14:54:00.000-08:00

Via Quorum Report, I see that Senator Hutchison has opened her first campaign office for this cycle. Campaign manager Terry Sullivan is at the helm in Austin.

New hire for Perry campaign

2005-03-11T02:58:00.000-08:00

Alfredo Rodriguez is the new political director for Rick Perry's campaign. Rodriguez was most recently at the NRCC, and has also worked for Henry Bonilla and Ramsay Farley (Chet Edwards' 2002 opponent).

Bell thinks Perry will beat KBH

2005-03-10T23:40:00.000-08:00

Chris Bell thinks Perry will beat KBH:

Bell, a Houston city councilman who lost a mayor's race before winning a seat in Congress, has set up an exploratory committee. He can't wait to see if former Comptroller John Sharp or the 2002 nominee, Tony Sanchez of Laredo, or former Austin Mayor Kirk Watson, will chance running if they might wind up facing not Perry but Hutchison, or Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn.

Neither woman can cut into Perry's support from "the far right wing" enough to beat Perry in a Republican primary, but can "bloody" him, Bell said.

"I just don't want to have Rick Perry come staggering out of a Republican primary with us standing there with no one ready to go," Bell said in an Austin interview. He thinks Perry's beatable.

Bell predicts a Perry victory, and says so publicly.

Of course, it should be noted that it is in Bell's self-interest to predict a Perry victory: Bell knows he can't beat KBH, but might have a shot at beating Perry after a vicious primary.

But Bell is probably being honest: if he believes Perry will be the Republican nominee, then he has a greater incentive to run for governor.

USAToday looks at the Trans-Texas Corridor

2005-03-08T12:56:00.000-08:00

USAToday: Texas is set to supersize highways

USAToday has a mostly positive profile of Perry's Trans-Texas Corridor. It notes that the goal is to relieve traffic in Texas' forever-booming cities and suburbs by building superhighways for long-distance traffic. It recounts the objections from environmentalists, farmers and ranchers, and small towns along interstates.

My question: how much of the current traffic on I-35 is long-distance and how much is commuter traffic? If we build it, can we be confident that it will reduce traffic? I checked the Trans-Texas Corridor website, and didn't find an answer. I'll send them an email and see if they respond.

That said, I think Perry deserves credit for trying to tackle a long-term problem that doesn't have any easy solutions. As I've said before, I think he loses votes for the program. Nobody is going to vote for Perry because he sells TTC as a traffic-reducing or economy-growing program. It's too abstract.

Those who oppose TTC are likely to be motivated to vote against Perry. Small towns along current interstates want to protect their monopoly on traffic. Building the TTC -- whether good policy or not -- hurts them. Similarly, those farmers and ranchers at risk of having their farms and ranches split in half, aren't likely to feel kindly towards Perry.

How many votes is this? Tough to say, since most of the primary vote is in the suburbs. It's not something that could swing a race unless it's very close. I'm thinking it's a couple thousand votes at best.

Of course, the timing should dampen folks' motivation to turnout against Perry. The GOP primary is in 12 months, and the general in 19. Most farmers and ranchers won't get exercised about the TTC until they see the actual route. Same with small towns. My guess is that we won't see a specific route proposal until after the general. [Strike this paragraph, see update]

Update: The HouChron also writes on the TTC. I should also note that maybe we will have a specific route proposal around election time, since federal approval is expected in spring 2006. I'm guessing that probably means we will have a specific route by the primary election.

And on second thought, Hutchison's main theme will probably be that Perry has failed to solve problems and accomplish big things (like school finance). So the TTC will be something concrete (pun intended) for Perry to point to.

Rick Perry backing HB2

2005-03-08T00:19:00.000-08:00

Rick Perry's campaign sent out an email this evening urging Perry supporters to back HB2.

The Texas Legislature will begin debating reforms to Texas' education system this week. Please call your legislator and let them know that you support House Bill 2 and ask them to support the bill as well. Information on House Bill 2 is attached for your review.

Again, call your Legislator today and let them know you not only support more money for education, but you want more education for your money and House Bill 2 will provide those needed reforms.

The email goes on to include talking points, myths vs. facts, and statistics on HB2.

Austin American-Statesman on blogs

2005-03-07T22:36:00.000-08:00

The Austin-American Statesman takes a look at the Governor's Cup brouhaha caused by this post by Eileen Smith at In the Pink Texas. Smith wrote:

The Texas Marketing Team (an arm of the Texas Economic Development Council and a partner in the Enterprise Fund ventures) is a gold-level sponsor of the Industrial Asset Management Council. Why does this matter? Well, guess who publishes Site Selection? The Industrial Asset Management Council.

Gardner Selby in the Statesman:

Did an arm of state government really give money to a publisher whose magazine last week gave Gov. Rick Perry a big gold cup, as reported in a local online blog?

Not exactly, though the explanation is knotty and gives some insight into the lively blogs tracking ups and downs around the Capitol.

"Blogs are certainly appropriate expressions of people's opinions," gubernatorial spokesman Robert Black said Monday. "The general public has to realize on blogs . . . there are no controls on accuracy or honesty. And there's no accountability.

"People need to be very careful with what they read in the blogs. Most blogs seem to be run with a pretty severe liberal bent."

...

The Texas Marketing Team, an arm of the nonprofit council, has committed $12,000 to $18,000 to sponsor an evening reception at a South Carolina conference to be hosted later this month by the Industrial Asset Management Council, which lists Site Selection as its official magazine..

But Ron Starner, the management council's interim executive director, said that the magazine is published by Conway Data and that the nonprofit association has no sway over editorial content, including the annual Governor's Cup designation, which started in 1978.

Starner, also director of publishing for Conway Data, said the fact that different economic development groups help pay for the council's twice-a-year meetings has "absolutely nothing" to do with the magazine.

The article also gives a short profile of BOR, Off the Kuff, Grits for Breakfast, and Greg Whythe.

A few things to note:

1. Could Mr. Selby really not locate a rightward-leaning blogger in Texas? He chooses to only highlight left-leaning blogs.

2. I'm skeptical that Site Selection magazine whores itself out for a mere $18,000. They've had this competition since 1978. Large states obviously have a big advantage in winning. A look at the winner's list shows that the winners are almost always Texas, Florida, Michigan or Ohio (21 out of 28 times, by my count). Moreover, the criteria for the winner is:
The Governor's Cup and other awards bestowed by the magazine are determined by the number of qualified projects logged into Conway Data's New Plant database. Qualifying projects involve a capital investment of at least $1 million, create 50 or more jobs or involve new floor space of at least 20,000 square feet (1,860 sq. m.).
Unless they changed the criteria specifically for this year -- and the fact that total projects are listed for each year's winner suggests that the criteria has always been the same -- then it appears that Texas legitimately won this year's Governor's Cup.

3. Despite that, given the advantage that big states have, it doesn't seem to me like winning the award is a big deal. It's worth a mention in the re-elect commercials -- jobs coming to Texas is good, after all -- but given the context it's not a huge deal.

4. I think it's pretty apparent that Rick Perry doesn't like blogs.

I guess that means he's not willing to do an interview with this blog. Heh.

School finance

2005-03-06T02:45:00.000-08:00

By far the most important issue in the gubernatorial race is school finance. It's a tough thing to cover; I don't have the resources to cover school finance properly.

It's worth noting that Grover Norquist, a very influential strategist, is firing a shot across the bow against HB2. Norquist has been close to Perry in the past, and if he doesn't like the plan, it provides an opening for KBH to outflank Perry to the right.

Perry wins governor's cup

2005-03-06T02:44:00.000-08:00

AP wire in the FWST:

Republican Gov. Rick Perry was all smiles and thumbs-up Thursday when he accepted the "Gov.'s Cup" trophy from Site Selection magazine.

The publication gave the award to Texas for having secured the most job creation announcements in the nation in 2004.

Perry used the occasion to make another pitch for further funding of his Texas Enterprise Fund, which the magazine cited as a $295 million tool that was central to the state's ability to attract companies.

Perry has asked the Legislature to infuse an additional $300 million into the fund for the coming two years. He also wants lawmakers to spend another $300 million on a new program to nurture research and job creation in high-tech industries.

"The enterprise fund is the bright neon sign that is letting employers around the world know that Texas is wide open for business and job creation," Perry said.

Site Selection also ranked Dallas-Fort Worth as the top metropolitan area in the nation for securing job announcements, with 277 last year.

Anyone want to bet that this appears in a tv ad in the future?

Sometimes, I don't like to title posts

2005-03-06T02:34:00.000-08:00

Maybe being a senator isn't a good stepping stone to other things? It's become a cliche that the Senate is a poor launching pad for presidential ambitions, but Todd Gillman writes in the DMN that just 3 senators have become governors in the last 15 years. Meanwhile, Perry squashes any notion that he'd be interested in being a Senator and John Cornyn sounds awfully sympathetic to a KBH primary challenge. In fact, most of his quotes have been fairly Hutchison sympathetic.

As for Mr. Perry, he says he's not interested in running for the Senate. Visiting Washington last week during a snowstorm, he said the weather alone was enough to keep him in Texas.

"That has never been on the radar screen," he said, laughing. "You can take that one to the bank."

Ms. Hutchison's husband, bond lawyer Ray Hutchison, ran for governor in 1978, and there's long been speculation that she wanted the job, too. The fact that their two young children are approaching school age adds urgency.

"There's an awful lot of traveling, going back and forth, associated with being in the Senate," said Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, who so far is neutral on a Perry-Hutchison matchup. "She may want to turn the treadmill off."

Besides, he said, even though she's in the GOP leadership and could coast to re-election, "we all strive for security until we get it, and then we get bored with it and want to take a little risk. ... But she's the only one who can make that evaluation as to what's best for her and her family. Life's too short to do something you don't want to do."

Chad Wilbanks

2005-03-05T23:32:00.000-08:00

Quite a few folks have been finding this blog recently through searches related to Chad Wilbanks. The total volume seemed a little high. Wilbanks is currently a consultant to KBH as well as a former KBH campaign staffer and former political director for Republican Party of Texas.

Perhaps I know why: Texas Weekly reports that Chad Wilbanks phoned into a Dallas talk show under a pseudonym to talk up Senator Hutchison.

UPDATE: A little research brings up more from Gromer Jeffers in DMN:

"Charlie from Flower Mound" seemed to like Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison a little too much.

The man phoned a Dallas radio show this week to air complaints about host Mark Davis' newspaper column, which said Ms. Hutchison should not challenge Gov. Rick Perry next year. "Charlie" spent about five minutes criticizing the governor and extolling the senator.

...

Mr. Perry's campaign manager alleged Thursday that "Charlie" was really Chad Wilbanks, a top campaign organizer for Ms. Hutchison.

The senator's office would not confirm Thursday whether Flower Mound Charlie was indeed Mr. Wilbanks of Austin, recently hired to run Ms. Hutchison's grass-roots organization. Mr. Wilbanks did not return telephone calls. Nor did he respond to Mr. Davis' show on WBAP-AM (820), which replayed the call Thursday.

...

"Charlie" emerged Wednesday after Mr. Davis' opinion piece was published in The Dallas Morning News.

The caller took exception to the article and said Ms. Hutchison should run for governor if she were so moved.

"In almost any position she's tackled, she's been successful," he said. "Why not let her come back and run for governor?"

"Charlie" also lashed out at Mr. Perry.

"I would like to see a real proposal for workers' compensation and school finance," he said. "He's gotten no results in school finance ... he pushed his education package through [last year's special session] and lost 150-to-nothing."

"Charlie" also offered obscure details about Ms. Hutchison's record, including her precise approval ratings with the Christian Coalition and National Right to Life Committee.

Mr. Davis said that, in retrospect, such details should have tipped him off.

Pretty amusing. If you're an actual campaign staffer, it's embarassing to get caught doing this sort of thing. If Wilbanks is in charge of grassroots, he should be getting some real grassroots folks to call in.

Kay Bailey's campaign consultants obviously think she's running for governor.

Bumper sticker watch

2005-03-05T22:52:00.000-08:00

I saw a Kinky Friedman for governor bumper sticker today. It was the one with the Texas Flag, the Jewish star and "Why not Kinky?". I wasn't close enough to read the writing, but the Jewish star on a Texas flag was a giveaway.

It will take much more before I would take Kinky's campaign seriously, but I do admire his political tact for being against the death penalty:

I'm not anti-death penalty, I'm against the wrong person getting executed. 2000 years ago, an innocent man, Jesus Christ was executed and I wonder what we've learned since then.

It's also worth noting that Kinky Friedman has a blog for campaign news.

Saint Arnold's seeks political connections

2005-03-05T21:43:00.000-08:00

From the Saint Arnold's newsletter:

WE ARE SEEKING ANYBODY WITH ANY STATE POLITICAL CONNECTIONS

The Texas Legislature is in their biannual session right now which means if we want any changes to the laws, now is the time to act, and fast! We are looking for anybody that has any connections with any of our state legislatures. Perhaps you work for one, or your wife or husband does, or you have beers with one, or perhaps you have a compromising picture of one with a goat. If you do have any such connections and you would be willing to introduce us, please let us know. The specific law that we would like to see changed is to allow small breweries to have dock sales (the ability to sell packaged beer to go at the brewery). Texas wineries can do it, but breweries cannot. This would especially help with kegs.

I was going to post this, but Charles Kuffner beat me to it. You might notice that Saint Arnold's (technically, the brewery name is Saint Arnold, but I don't know anyone who calls it that) has been a link on my sidebar for awhile, so do help if you can (especially since changing the law is a good idea). All successful businesses eventually realize that they need a governmental relations strategy. I'm a big fan of their Kristallweizen, Elissa IPA, and all their seasonal beers (especially the Christmas Ale).

Kuffner also notes that St. Arnold's telephone number is 713-686-9494. Or, you might try brewery@saintarnold.com. If you read about this here or at Kuff's, feel free to mention us.

Texas Independence Day

2005-03-02T21:44:00.000-08:00

Happy Texas Independence Day.

It might not be the gubernatorial campaign, but...

2005-03-02T16:01:00.000-08:00

While wandering through the flooded parking lots of my alma mater today, I saw 3 Barbara Radnofsky bumper stickers. I was a little surprised, since those are the first Radnosky bumper stickers or yard signs I've seen anywhere.

So I did some research, and it turns out her daughter is a junior at Rice. Maybe it's not so surprising after all. So of course I looked her daughter up on thefacebook. She lists her political views as liberal, and is in the Rice Dems group. And we have 4 friends in common.

Thefacebook is fun.

Mark Davis op-ed in DMN

2005-03-02T15:39:00.000-08:00

The emcee of the recent Collin County GOP Lincoln Day Dinner writes in the Dallas Morning News:

You know you're in for an interesting evening when you're talking politics with members of Congress beneath a huge painting of Jock Ewing.

Actor Jim Davis played the Ewing family patriarch on TV's Dallas until his death in 1981. Nearly a quarter-century later, the family home is host to the occasional high-toned political event.

Events don't get much bigger than Saturday night's Collin County Lincoln Day Dinner at Southfork. When county GOP chairman Rick Neudorff asked me to emcee the proceedings a few months ago, the main draw was the keynote address to be delivered by author and pundit Ann Coulter.

But when the speaker list grew to include Gov. Rick Perry and the vastly popular woman who might want his job, my enthusiasm grew, and so did the audience.

...

But in the only allusion she made to her plans, she finished a statement about President Bush's foreign and domestic challenges with an intriguing promise: "I will be there to help him."

Oh? And for how long?

A gubernatorial race means assembling an organization, plotting strategy and raising money. It will be a little harder to be everywhere a U.S. senator needs to be while running for another job. Ask John Kerry or Bob Dole.

...

The overwhelming impression I discern from Republicans who like both Mr. Perry and Ms. Hutchison is this: If she still has the fire in the belly for elected office, why not stay right where she is and continue her proud legacy of representing Texas under the U.S. Capitol dome?

"I like Kay in Washington and Rick in Austin, and I don't want to see one of them given the hook back into private life," an e-mailer wrote to me the day after the dinner.

To hear both of them speak is to have an appreciation for what they have done. Ms. Hutchison's combination of grace and toughness has made her an uncommon force in Washington. Mr. Perry's track record now includes the redistricting battle, which deservedly won him waves of new and more passionate fans in his party.

He has earned the right to be regarded as more than just Mr. Bush's lucky successor in Austin. Only the gods of political timing could conjure for him an ironic fate in which he rises to the ranks of the virtually unbeatable, only to face the lone opponent whose star power might bring him down.

I say "might" because I have no idea right now how their primary battle would end up. Ultimately, Ms. Hutchison is entitled to do whatever she likes, but a growing part of me hopes we don't have to find out which would triumph.

I've talked to a few folks (by no means a significant sample size) who will ultimately back KBH if/when she challenges Perry, and while their loyalty is to her, they're uncomfortable losing Sen. Hutchison's seniority in the Senate. Whether this issue resonates beyond a select few...

Perry gets a B from Cato

2005-03-02T15:22:00.000-08:00

Don Jordan writes in the Houston Chronicle about the Cato Institute's Fiscal Report Card on the governors. Cato's report grades how well governors do at cutting taxes and cutting spending.

2 governors received A's: Schwarzenegger and Craig Benson, who lost his re-election in NH. 11 governors received B's; Perry's score was the lowest of those who received B's.

Here is the text of the Cato evaluation of Perry:

As George W. Bush's lieutenant governor, Rick Perry was a key player in getting Bush's tax cuts passed. When he succeeded Bush as governor, he decided to take things slow at first: Perry saw little room for tax cuts in the beginning. The state was still recovering from Bush's spending buildup - Census Bureau numbers show that real per capita spending went up a whopping 6.7 percent in Perry's first year in office. Perry was reelected in a 2002 landslide, pledging to oppose any new or increased taxes. With the state facing a $10 billion deficit in the 2004 - 05 biennium, Perry instituted a zerobased budget to force the state agencies to justify their continued existence and funding levels. In June 2003 the legislature passed a balanced budget that cut spending and raised various fees and charges but avoided any general tax increase. In 2004 Perry proposed a $6 billion property tax cut, along with a property tax limitation measure that would prevent property taxes from increasing by more than 3 percent a year. To pay for his property tax cut, Perry also proposed a massive cigarette tax hike of $1 per pack. Perry called the legislature into special session to consider his tax plan, but the legislature took no action. Tax reform and education financing are subjects of ongoing debates in Texas, and Perry has been outspoken in his opposition to an income tax. His plan is to cut property taxes, which are high in Texas, and perhaps institute a statewide business tax. He insists that any tax reform plan should be an overall tax cut. With a few exceptions, Perry's fiscal record so far indicates that Texas taxpayers are in good hands.

Fiscal
Performance Data
6.7% Average Annual Change in Real per Capita Direct General Spending through 2002
6.0% Average Annual Change in Direct General Spending per $1,000 Personal Income through 2002
-2.1% Average Annual Recommended Change in Real per Capita General Fund Spending through 2005
-3.2% Average Annual Change in General Fund Spending per $1,000 Personal Income, 2002–2005
1.8% Average Annual Change in Real per Capita Tax Revenue through 2002
-6.1% Average Annual Change in Tax Revenue per $1,000 Personal Income through 2002
-2.4% Average Annual Recommended Change in General Fund Revenue per $1,000 Personal
Income through 2005
-2.5% Average Annual Change in Real per Capita General Fund Revenue, 2002–2005
0.7% Average Annual Recommended Tax Changes as % of Prior Year's Spending through 2005
n/a Change in Top Personal Income Tax Rate, proposed and/or enacted (% points)
0.0 Change in Top Corporate Income Tax Rate, proposed and/or enacted (% points)
4.5 2004 Combined Top Income Tax Rates, personal plus corporate
0.5 Change in Sales Tax Rate, proposed and/or enacted (% points)
0.0 Change in Gas Tax Rate, proposed and/or enacted (cents per gallon)
100 Change in Cigarette Tax Rate, proposed and/or enacted (cents per gallon

Here's excerpts of Jordan's HouChron coverage:

Gov. Rick Perry's approach to property and income taxes earned him good marks in a report on 2004 fiscal policy issued Tuesday by a libertarian-oriented think tank.

The Cato Institute gave a "B" grade to Perry and five other governors who have served more than one term.

Two other such governors got an "A."

...

"The fact that he has not made any movement toward raising or instituting a wage or income tax has been one of the reasons he got a high grade in our report," said Stephen Moore, senior fellow with the institute. "He's been a real spectacular governor in my opinion."

Cato, which calls itself "market liberal" as it supports limited government and free market policies, publishes the report every two years.

...

Based on Perry's score, "Texas taxpayers are in good hands," the report stated.

Moore said Perry did a good job of finding government waste and cutting agency budgets, "and he did a wonderful job of weathering the fiscal storm."

Facing more financial problems, Perry last month said he would be open to increasing the state gas tax to match inflation. The tax will raise almost $3 billion this year, behind the pace of increasing costs of building and maintaining highways.

Some of Perry's critics claim the governor's earlier tax-limiting policies were enacted at the expense of important social programs.

U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Texas, threw political jabs at Perry this year when she criticized Texas for giving up $104.6 million in federal funds for children's health insurance after the state refused to spend money that would make the funds available. She is considering a run for governor next year.